Republic Bancorp (Republic Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Republic Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Republic Bancorp (Republic Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Republic Bancorp Inc (NAS:RBCAA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

601 West Market Street, Louisville, KY, USA, 40202

Website

https://www.republicbank.com

Republic Bancorp Inc operates as a financial institution that provides both traditional and non-traditional banking products through five reportable segments. It has traditional banking, warehouse, mortgage banking, Tax Refund Solutions (TRS), and Republic Credit Solutions (RCS) business segments. The business activities of these segments include retail mortgage lending, commercial lending, construction and land development lending, internet lending, correspondent lending, and indirect lending and also private banking, treasury management services, internet, and mobile banking, bank acquisitions, short-term revolving credit facilities, fixed-term residential real estate loans and receipt and payment of federal and state tax refund products under the TRS division.

Executives

Juan Montano	officer: EVP, Chief Mtg Banking Officer	601 W MARKET ST, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Steven E Deweese	officer: EVP, Dir of Retail Banking	601 WEST MARKET STREET, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Christy Ames	officer: EVP, General Counsel	601 W MARKET ST, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Scott Trager	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Vice Chairman	601 W MARKET ST, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Vidya Ravichandran	director	601 W MARKET ST, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Jennifer N Green	director	601 W MARKET ST, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Timothy S. Huval	director	500 W. MAIN STREET, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Trager Trust Of 2012	10 percent owner	601 W MARKET ST, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Steve Trager	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	601 W MARKET ST, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Laura M Douglas	director	601 W MARKET ST, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Logan Pichel	director, officer: President & CEO, Republic Bank	601 W MARKET ST, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Jeff Starke	officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer	601 W MARKET ST, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
George Iii Nichols	director	601 W MARKET ST, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Margaret S Wendler	officer: EVP & Chief HR Officer	601 W MARKET ST, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
David P Feaster	director	601 W MARKET ST, LOUISVILLE KY 40202