Renasant (Renasant) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Renasant Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Renasant (Renasant) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Renasant Corp (NYSE:RNST) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

209 Troy Street, Tupelo, MS, USA, 38804-4827

Website

https://www.renasantbank.com

Renasant Corp operates as a holding company for Renasant Bank, a Mississippi banking corporation, and its subsidiary, Renasant Insurance, Inc. It has three reportable segments: community banks, insurance, and wealth management. With its community banks segment, the company provides a range of financial services to individuals and small businesses. Its insurance segment is an insurance agency providing commercial and personal insurance through third-party carriers. The wealth management segment provides a range of services including money management and retirement planning. The majority of the company's revenue is driven by lending activities in its community banks segment. Renasant Corporation operates in the southern United States.

Executives

Curtis J Perry	officer: SEVP	P.O. BOX 120, COLUMBUS GA 31902
John Foy	director	1881 N PARC CIRCLE, TUPELO MS 38804
Rose J. Flenorl	director	209 TROY STREET, TUPELO MS 38804
Holland Neal A Jr	director	PO BOX 1948, DECATUR AL 35602
Baxter Jimmy R. Iii	officer: EVP/Chief Risk Officer	209 TROY ST, TUPELO MS 38804
James W Gray	officer: Executive Vice President
John Creekmore	director
Edward Robinson Mcgraw	officer: CEO/Pres
Mabry James C. Iv	officer: EVP and CFO	209 TROY STREET, TUPELO MS 38804
Kelly Hutcheson	officer: EVP/Chief Accounting Officer	209 TROY STREET, TUPELO MS 38804
R Rick Hart	director, officer: Sr Executive Vice President	916 CHANCERY LN, NASHVILLE TN 37205
Richard Heyer	director
Gary D. Butler	director	209 TROY STREET, TUPELO MS 38804
Bartow Jr Morgan	officer: Executive Vice President	106 E CROGAN STREET, LAWRENCEVILLE GA 30046
Fred F Sharpe	director	C/O HERITAGE FINANCIAL GROUP, 721 N WESTOVER BOULEVARD, ALBANY GA 31707