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Safety Insurance Group Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Safety Insurance Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Safety Insurance Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Safety Insurance Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Safety Insurance Group Business Description

Safety Insurance Group logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
20 Custom House Street, Boston, MA, USA, 02110
Safety Insurance Group Inc is a provider of private passenger automobile insurance in Massachusetts. The company also offers property and casualty insurance products, including commercial automobile, homeowners, dwelling fire, umbrella, and business owner policies. It operates in the business segment of Property and casualty insurance operations.
Executives
Farina John Daniel Jr. director 20 CUSTOM HOUSE ST BOSTON MA 02110
Gray Deborah E director 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Hiltpold Glenn officer: VP of Actuarial Services 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Moran Mary Coffey director DANVERS BANCORP, INC. ONE CONANT STREET DANVERS MA 01923
Whitford Christopher Thomas officer: VP, CFO and Secretary 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Srb Corp 10 percent owner 125 HIGH STREET OLIVER STREET TOWER, 9TH FLOOR BOSTON MA 02110
Palisades Safety & Insurance Association 10 percent owner C/O PLYMOUTH ROCK MANAGEMENT CO OF NJ 581 MAIN STREET, 4TH FLOOR WOODBRIDGE NJ 07095
Plymouth Rock Co Inc 10 percent owner 695 ATLANTIC AVENUE BOSTON MA 02111
Meehan Thalia director C/O SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC. 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Drago John Patrick officer: VP - Marketing 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Mckeown Ann Marie officer: V.P Insurance Operations 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Varga Stephen Albert officer: VP - MIS 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Narciso Paul J officer: VP - Claims C/O SAFETY INSURANCE 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Murphy George officer: VP - Marketing C/O SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC. 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Berry James officer: VP - Insurance Operations C/O SAFETY INSURANCE 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
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