Charles Schwab (Charles Schwab) Predictability Rank

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What is Charles Schwab Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Charles Schwab Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Charles Schwab (Charles Schwab) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Charles Schwab Corp (NYSE:SCHW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SCHWpJ.PFD:USA SCHWpD.PFD:USA SCHW:Mexico SWG:Germany SWG:Germany SCHW34:Brazil

Address

3000 Schwab Way, Westlake, TX, USA, 76262

Website

https://www.aboutschwab.com

Charles Schwab operates in brokerage, wealth management, banking, and asset-management businesses. The company runs a large network of brick-and-mortar brokerage branch offices, a well-established online investing website, and has mobile trading capabilities. It also operates a bank and a proprietary asset management business and offers services to independent investment advisors. The company is among the largest firms in the investment business, with over $7 trillion of client assets at the end of December 2022. Nearly all of its revenue is from the United States.

Executives

Carolyn Schwab-pomerantz	director	3000 SCHWAB WAY, WESTLAKE TX 76262
Morgan Peter J. Iii	officer: General Counsel	211 MAIN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Peter B. Crawford	officer: CFO	211 MAIN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Charles R. Schwab	director, officer: Co-Chairman	PO BOX 2226, PALM BEACH FL 33480
Paula A Sneed	director	THREE LAKES DRIVE, NORTHFIELD IL 60093
Charles A. Ruffel	director	3000 SCHWAB WAY, WESTLAKE TX 76262
Arun Sarin	director	C/O SAFEWAY INC., 5918 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Joan Dea	director	229 BRANNAN ST. #18G, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Brian M Levitt	director	C/O DOMTAR CORPORATION, 234 KINGSLEY PARK DRIVE, FORT MILL SC 29715
Marianne Catherine Brown	director	4094 TIMUQUANA ROAD, JACKSONVILLE FL 33210-8571
Richard A Wurster	officer: President	3000 SCHWAB WAY, WESTLAKE TX 76262
Bernard J. Clark	officer: MD, Head of Adivsor Services	C/O THE CHARLES SCHWAB CORPORATION, 211 MAIN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Gerri Martin-flickinger	director	C/O TABLEAU SOFTWARE, INC., 1621 N 34TH ST, SEATTLE WA 98103
Mark A Goldfarb	director	C/O THE CHARLES SCHWAB CORPORATION, 211 MAIN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Stephen A Ellis	director	C/O THE CHARLES SCHWAB CORPORATION, 211 MAIN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105