Schrodinger (Schrodinger) Predictability Rank

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What is Schrodinger Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Schrodinger Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Schrodinger (Schrodinger) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Schrodinger Inc (NAS:SDGR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

43Z:Germany

Address

1540 Broadway, 24th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10036

Website

https://www.schrodinger.com

Schrodinger Inc is a healthcare-based software company. Its operating segments are Software and Drug discovery. Through the Software segment, the company is focused on selling software to transform drug discovery across the life sciences industry and customers in materials science industries. In the Drug discovery segment, it is engaged in generating revenue from a portfolio of preclinical and clinical programs, internally and through collaborations. It generates revenue from the sales of software solutions and from research funding and milestone payments from its drug discovery collaborations.

Executives

Kenneth Patrick Lorton	officer: See Remarks	SCHRODINGER, INC., 120 WEST 45TH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Margaret Dugan	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O MOURANT GOVERNANCE SERVICES (CAYMAN), 94 SOLARIS AVE, CAMANA BAY, PO BOX 1348, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1108
Yvonne Tran	officer: See Remarks	SCHRODINGER, INC., 120 WEST 45TH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Nancy Thornberry	director	SCHRODINGER, INC., 120 WEST 45TH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Ramy Farid	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	SCHRODINGER, INC., 120 WEST 45TH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Geoffrey Craig Porges	officer: EVP & CFO	1540 BROADWAY, 24TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10036
Arun Oberoi	director	100 EAST DAVIE STREET, RALEIGH NC 27601
Robert Lorne Abel	officer: See Remarks	SCHRODINGER, INC., 120 WEST 45TH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Karen Akinsanya	officer: See Remarks	SCHRODINGER, INC., 120 WEST 45TH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Joel Lebowitz	officer: See Remarks	SCHRODINGER, INC., 120 WEST 45TH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
David E Shaw	10 percent owner	120 WEST FORTY-FIFTH STREET, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jorg Weiser	officer: See Remarks	SCHRODINGER, INC., 120 WEST 45TH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jennifer Daniel	officer: See Remarks	SCHRODINGER, INC., 120 WEST 45TH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
D'cruz Cony	officer: See Remarks	SCHRODINGER, INC., 120 WEST 45TH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Richard Friesner	director, 10 percent owner	SCHRODINGER, INC., 120 WEST 45TH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036