SIFCO Industries (SIFCO Industries) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SIFCO Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SIFCO Industries (SIFCO Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » SIFCO Industries Inc (AMEX:SIF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

970 East 64th Street, Cleveland, OH, USA, 44103

Website

https://www.sifco.com

SIFCO Industries Inc is engaged in the production of forgings and machined components for the Aerospace and Energy, Defense and Commercial Space markets. Its processes and services include forging, heat-treating and machining. It serves original equipment manufacturers (OEM) as well as aftermarket customers. Its products are made of steel, stainless steel, titanium and aluminium and include OEM and aftermarket components for aircraft and industrial gas turbine engines, steam turbine blades, structural airframe components, aircraft landing gear components, aircraft wheels and brakes, critical rotating components for helicopters and industrial products. Substantial revenue is derived from North America as well as operates in Europe.

Executives

Wells Norman E Jr.	director	PO BOX 609, AURORA OH 44202
Alayne L Reitman	director	SIFCO INDUSTRIES INC, 970 EAST 64TH STREET, CLEVELAND OH 44103
Peter William Knapper	director, officer: President & CEO	5924 MEDALLION DRIVE, WESTERVILLE OH 43082
Molten Donald C Jr.	director	970 EAST 64TH STREET, CLEVELAND OH 44103
Mark J Silk	director, 10 percent owner	4946 AZUSA CANYON ROAD, IRWINDALE CA 91706
Hudson Smith	director	SIFCO INDUSTRIES INC, 970 EAST 64TH STREET, CLEVELAND OH 44103
Thomas Robert Kubera	officer: Corporate Controller	1327 SPRUCEDALE ROAD, BROADVIEW HEIGHTS OH 44147
Jeffrey P Gotschall	director	SIFCO INDUSTRIES INC, 970 EAST 64TH STREET, CLEVELAND OH 44103
Salvatore Incanno	officer: VP of Finance & CFO	970 E. 64TH ST, CLEVELAND OH 44103
John Sr Chapman	director	970 EAST 64TH STREET, CLEVELAND OH 44103
Dennis Paul Hido	officer: Corporate Controller	21 EMERALD COURT, CANFIELD OH 44406
Catherine Marie Kramer	officer: Vice President-Finance & CFO	14388 CASTLEREAGH LANE, STRONSVILLE OH 44136
Frank N Nichols	director	8646 CARDINAL DRIVE, KIRTLAND OH 44094
Frank A Cappello	officer: Vice President Finance and CFO	SIFCO INDUSTRIES INC, 970 EAST 64TH STREET, CLEVELAND OH 44103
Miller P Charles Jr	director	SIFCO INDUSTRIES INC, 970 EAST 64TH STREET, CLEVELAND OH 44103