Sirius XM Holdings (Sirius XM Holdings) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1994. Start your Free Trial

What is Sirius XM Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sirius XM Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Sirius XM Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Sirius XM Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Sirius XM Holdings (Sirius XM Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Sirius XM Holdings Inc (NAS:SIRI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RDO:Germany RDO:Germany RDO:Germany SRXM34:Brazil SIRI:Austria

Address

1221 Avenue of the Americas, 35th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10020

Website

https://www.siriusxm.com

Sirius XM Holdings is composed of two businesses: SiriusXM and Pandora. SiriusXM transmits music, talk shows, sports, and news via its two satellite radio networks, primarily to consumers in vehicles who pay a subscription fee. The firm's radios come preinstalled on a wide range of light vehicles in the U.S. and Canada. The firm acquired Pandora Media in February 2019 via an all-stock transaction. Pandora is a streaming music platform that offers an ad-supported radio option and a paid on-demand service as well as a robust and growing podcast library. Liberty Media owns 81% of Sirius XM, traded through its Liberty Sirius XM Group tracking stock.

Executives

Joseph A Inzerillo	officer: Chief Product & Tech. Officer	173 WATER STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11201
David Adam Blau	director	12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112-7009
Sean S Sullivan	officer: EVP and CFO	11 PENN PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10001
Jonelle Procope	director	1221 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10020
Stephen Cook	officer: EVP, Sales and Automotive
Kristina Salen	director	1601 CLOVERFIELD BLVD., SUITE 620, SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Dara F Altman	officer: EVP & Chief Admin. Officer	SIRIUS XM RADIO INC., 1221 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10020
Joan Lordi Amble	director	AMERICAN EXPRESS COMPANY, 200 VESEY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10285
Carl E Vogel	director	C/O SIRIUS XM RADIO INC., 1221 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10020
James E Meyer	officer: President, Sales & Operations	6922 HOLLYWOOD BLVD., 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90028
Vanessa Ames Wittman	director	C/O MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC., 1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Scott Andrew Greenstein	officer: Pres., Entertainment & Sports	SIRIUS XM RADIO INC., 1221 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10020
James Mooney	director	1221 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10020
David J Frear	officer: EVP and CFO	1221 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10020
James Arthur Cady	officer: EVP, Product and Operations	1221 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10020