Smith-Midland (Smith-Midland) Predictability Rank

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What is Smith-Midland Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Smith-Midland Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Smith-Midland (Smith-Midland) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Building Materials » Smith-Midland Corp (NAS:SMID) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5119 Catlett Road, P.O. Box 300, Midland, VA, USA, 22728

Website

https://www.smithmidland.com

Smith-Midland Corp through its subsidiaries invents, develops, manufactures, markets sells and installs precast concrete products for primary use in the construction, highway, utilities and farming industries. The firm's customers are general contractors and federal, state and local transportation authorities. Its products include Slenderwall, JJhooks, Softsound, Sierra wall and Easi set. A substantial portion of the company's business is derived from local, state and federal building projects. The company generates revenues primarily from the sale, leasing, licensing, shipping, and installation of precast concrete products for the construction, utility and farming industries.

Executives

Wesley A Taylor	director, officer: Vice President	C/O SMITH MIDLAND CORP, 5119 CATLETT ROAD, MIDLAND VA 22728
Stephanie Poe	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5119 CATLETT ROAD, MIDLAND VA 22728
Ashley B Smith	director, officer: Vice President	C/O SMITH MIDLAND CORP, 5119 CATLETT ROAD, MIDLAND VA 22728
Rodney I Smith	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O SMITH MIDLAND CORP, 5119 CATLETT ROAD, MIDLAND VA 22728
Adam Jay Krick	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5119 CATLETT ROAD, MIDLAND VA 22728
James Russell Bruner	director	5119 CATLETT ROAD, MIDLAND VA 22728
Richard Gerhardt	director	5229 CATLETT ROAD, MIDLAND VA 20728
Russell Frederick L. Jr.	10 percent owner	1801 LIBBIE AVENUE, SUITE 201, RICHMOND VA 23226
Virginia Capital Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	1801 LIBBIE AVENUE, SUITE 201, RICHMOND VA 23226
Virginia Capital Partners Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	1801 LIBBIE AVENUE, SUITE 201, RICHMOND VA 23226
Virginia Capital Ii, Lp	10 percent owner	1801 LIBBIE AVENUE, SUITE 201, RICHMOND VA 23226
Tall Cotton Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	1801 LIBBIE AVENUE, SUITE 201, RICHMOND VA 23226
Gerhard E Borst	director	5119 CATLETT ROAD, MIDLAND VA 22728
David W Wright	10 percent owner
Canine Partners Llc	10 percent owner	255 SO 17TH ST, SUITE 2501, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103