Snowflake (Snowflake) Predictability Rank

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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Snowflake Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Snowflake (Snowflake) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Snowflake Inc (NYSE:SNOW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SNOW:Mexico 0A93:UK 5Q5:Germany 5Q5:Germany 5Q5:Germany 5Q5:Germany S2NW34:Brazil SNWF:Austria

Address

106 East Babcock Street, Suite 3A, Bozeman, MT, USA, 59715

Website

https://www.snowflake.com

Founded in 2012, Snowflake is a data lake, warehousing, and sharing company that came public in 2020. To date, the company has over 3,000 customers, including nearly 30% of the Fortune 500 as its customers. Snowflake's data lake stores unstructured and semistructured data that can then be used in analytics to create insights stored in its data warehouse. Snowflake's data sharing capability allows enterprises to easily buy and ingest data almost instantaneously compared with a traditionally months-long process. Overall, the company is known for the fact that all of its data solutions that can be hosted on various public clouds.

Executives

Christian Kleinerman	officer: SVP, Product Management	106 E. BABCOCK STREET, SUITE 3A, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Christopher William Degnan	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	450 CONCAR DRIVE, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Frank Slootman	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and Chairman	106 EAST BABCOCK STREET, SUITE 3A, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Grzegorz Czajkowski	officer: SVP, Engineering and Support	106 E. BABCOCK STREET, SUITE 3A, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Benoit Dageville	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President of Products	450 CONCAR DRIVE, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Teresa Briggs	director	2225 LAWSON LANE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Michael L Speiser	director, 10 percent owner	755 PAGE MILL ROAD, SUITE A-200, PALO ALTO CA 94304-1005
Michael Scarpelli	10 percent owner, officer: Chief Financial Officer	106 EAST BABCOCK STREET, SUITE 3A, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Mark D Mclaughlin	director	C/O PALO ALTO NETWORKS, INC., 4401 GREAT AMERICA PKWY, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
John Dennis Mcmahon	director	C/O BLADELOGIC, INC., 10 MAGUIRE STREET, BUILDING 3, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Stephen B Burke	director	41 CENTRAL PARK WEST - APT 11A, NEW YORK NY 10023
Jeremy Burton	director	C/O SNOWFLAKE INC., 106 EAST BABCOCK STREET SUITE 3A, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Mark Garrett	director	106 EAST BABCOCK STREET SUITE 3A, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Sequoia Grove Manager, Llc	10 percent owner	SEQUOIA CAPITAL, 2800 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sequoia Grove Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	SEQUOIA CAPITAL, 2800 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025