Thermon Group Holdings (Thermon Group Holdings) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Thermon Group Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Thermon Group Holdings (Thermon Group Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Thermon Group Holdings Inc (NYSE:THR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

8TG:Germany

Address

7171 Southwest Parkway, Building 300, Suite 200, Austin, TX, USA, 78735

Website

https://www.thermon.com

Thermon Group Holdings Inc is a United States-based company that provides engineered thermal solutions for process industries. The company's product portfolio comprises electric heat tracing cables, steam tracing components, tubing bundles, and instrument and control products, as well as complementary product lines. It also provides turnkey services and design and engineering services. The company's customers include large engineering, procurement, and construction companies; oil and gas companies; commercial subcontractors; electrical component distributors; and others. The company has a presence, with the United States, Canada, and Europe being its top three markets and contributing the majority of its sales.

Executives

Kevin J Mcginty	director	6688 N CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 1170, DALLAS TX 75206
Nesser John T Iii	director	777 N ELDRIDGE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77079
Kevin Fox	officer: VP - Corporate Development	7171 SOUTHWEST PKWY, BLD. 300 STE. 200, AUSTIN TX 78735
Candace Harris-peterson	officer: VP, Human Resources	7171 SOUTHWEST PARKWAY, BUILDING 300, SUITE 200, AUSTIN TX 78735
Angela Strzelecki	director	INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES INC., 521 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Bruce Thames	officer: Executive VP and COO	100 THERMON DRIVE, SAN MARCOS TX 78666
Kuahara Roberto	officer: SVP, Operations	7171 SOUTHWEST PKWY, BLD. 300, STE. 200, AUSTIN TX 78735
Van Der Salm Johannes Rene	officer: SVP-Global Operations	100 THERMON DRIVE, SAN MARCOS TX 78666
Michael W Press	director	P O BOX 327, GATES MILLS OH 44040
James Pribble	officer: SVP, Thermon Heating Systems	7171 SOUTHWEST PARKWAY, BUILDING 300, SUITE 200, AUSTIN TX 78735
John U Clarke	director	PENN VIRGINIA CORPORATION, FOUR RADNOR CORPORATE CENTER, STE 200, RADNOR PA 19087
Roger L Fix	director
Tarkington Ryan	officer: General Counsel & Corp. Sec.	7171 SOUTHWEST PARKWAY, BUILDING 300, SUITE 200, AUSTIN TX 78735
David Buntin	officer: SVP, Thermon Heat Tracing	7171 SOUTHWEST PARKWAY, BUILDING 300, SUITE 200, AUSTIN TX 78735
Mark John Roberts	officer: SVP, Global Engineering	7171 SOUTHWEST PARKWAY, BUILDING 300, SUITE 200, AUSTIN TX 78735