Thermo Fisher Scientific (Thermo Fisher Scientific) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1980. Start your Free Trial

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Thermo Fisher Scientific Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Thermo Fisher Scientific Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Thermo Fisher Scientific's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Thermo Fisher Scientific (Thermo Fisher Scientific) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (NYSE:TMO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TMO:Peru TMO:Mexico TN8:Germany TN8:Germany TN8:Germany TMOS34:Brazil TMO:Argentina

Address

168 Third Avenue, Waltham, MA, USA, 02451

Website

https://www.thermofisher.com

Thermo Fisher Scientific sells scientific instruments and laboratory equipment, diagnostics consumables, and life science reagents. The firm operates through four segments as of mid-2023 (revenue figures include some cross-segment revenue): analytical technologies (16% of sales); specialty diagnostic products (10%); life science solutions (24%); and lab products and services, which includes CRO services (54%).

Executives

Marc N Casper	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC, 168 THIRD AVENUE, WALTHAM MA 02451
Gianluca Pettiti	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O BUTTERFLY NETWORK, INC., 530 OLD WHITFIELD STREET, GUILFORD CT 06437
Stephen Williamson	officer: Sr. VP and CFO	81 WYMAN STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Jennifer M Johnson	director	C/O FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC., ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403-1906
Michael A Boxer	officer: Sr. VP and Gen. Counsel	168 THIRD AVENUE, WALTHAM MA 02451
Lisa P. Britt	officer: Sr. VP and Chief HR Officer	168 THIRD AVENUE, WALTHAM MA 02451
Jim P Manzi	director	81 WYMAN ST, POST OFFICE BOX 9046, WALTHAM MA 02454
Debora L Spar	director	C/O GOLDMAN, SACHS & CO., 200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Michel Lagarde	officer: Senior Vice President	450 LEXINGTON AVE., 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Ruby R Chandy	director	630 DUNDEE ROAD, SUITE 400, NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Mark P Stevenson	officer: Executive Vice President	850 LINCOLN CENTRE DRIVE, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Joseph R. Holmes	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	168 THIRD AVENUE, WALTHAM MA 02451
R. Alexandra Keith	director	ONE PROCTER & GAMBLE PLAZA, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Peter E Hornstra	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	81 WYMAN ST, POST OFFICE BOX 9046, WALTHAM MA 02454
Syed A. Jafry	officer: Sr. Vice President	345 E. MAIN STREET, WARSAW IN 46580