Targa Resources (Targa Resources) Predictability Rank

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What is Targa Resources Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Targa Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Targa Resources Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Targa Resources (Targa Resources) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Targa Resources Corp (NYSE:TRGP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

CQP PAA WES AM ENLC DTM FRO ETRN PAGP STNG TSX:ENB EPD WMB ET LNG OKE MPLX KMI TSX:TRP TSX:PPL

Traded in Other Exchanges

TAR:Germany

Address

811 Louisiana Street, Suite 2100, Houston, TX, USA, 77002

Website

https://www.targaresources.com

Targa Resources is a midstream firm that primarily operates gathering and processing assets with substantial positions in the Permian, Stack, Scoop, and Bakken plays. It has 843,000 barrels a day of gross fractionation capacity at Mont Belvieu and operates a liquefied petroleum gas export terminal. The Grand Prix natural gas liquids pipeline recently entered full service.

Executives

Robert Muraro	officer: See Remarks	1000 LOUISIANA, SUITE 4300, HOUSTON TX 77002
Julie H. Boushka	officer: Senior VP and CAO	811 LOUISIANA, SUITE 2100, HOUSTON TX 77002
G Clark White	officer: EVP - Engineering & Operations	1000 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 4300, HOUSTON TX 77002
Regina Gregory	officer: See Remarks	2013 CITYWEST BLVD, BUILDING 4 SUITE 800, HOUSTON TX 77042
D. Scott Pryor	officer: See Remarks	1000 LOUISIANA, SUITE 4300, HOUSTON TX 77002
Paul W Chung	officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary	TARGA RESOURCES PARTNERS LP, 1000 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 4300, HOUSTON TX 77002
Charles R Crisp	director	1301 MCKINNEY STE 700, HOUSTON TX 77010
Lindsey Cooksen	director	811 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 2100, HOUSTON TX 77002
Rene R Joyce	director	P.O. BOX 130430, HOUSTON TX 77219-0430
Jennifer R. Kneale	officer: Chief Financial Officer	811 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 2100, HOUSTON TX 77002
Joe Bob Perkins	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	TARGA RESOURCES PARTNERS, LP, 1000 LOUISIANA ST., SUITE 4300, HOUSTON TX 77002
Patrick J. Mcdonie	officer: See Remarks	110 W. 7TH STREET, SUITE 2300, TULSA OK 74119
Davis Waters S Iv	director	10200 ALLIANCE ROAD, SUITE 200, CINCINNATI OH 45242
Redd Ershel C Jr	director	C/O EL PASO ELECTRIC COMPANY, 100 N. STANTON, EL PASO TX 79901
Chris Tong	director	600 E LAS COLINAS # 1100, IRVING TX 75019