Terreno Realty (Terreno Realty) Predictability Rank

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What is Terreno Realty Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Terreno Realty Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Terreno Realty (Terreno Realty) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Terreno Realty Corp (NYSE:TRNO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

T37:Germany

Address

10500 NE 8th Street, Suite 1910, Bellevue, WA, USA, 98004

Website

https://www.terreno.com

Terreno Realty Corp is a real estate investment trust engaged in acquiring, owning and operating industrial real estate in six coastal U.S. markets: Los Angeles, Northern New Jersey/New York City, San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle, Miami, and Washington, D.C. The company invests in several types of industrial real estate, including warehouse/distribution, flex (including light industrial and research and development), transshipment and improved land.

Executives

Melinda Weston	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	TERRENO REALTY CORPORATION, 10500 NE 8TH STREET, SUITE 301, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Leroy E Carlson	director	79840 CITRUS STREET, LAQUINTA CA 92253
Michael A Coke	director, officer: PRESIDENT	TERRENO REALTY CORPORATION, 101 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Irene H Oh	director	135 N LOS ROBLES AVE. 7TH FL, PASADENA CA 91101
Gary N Boston	director	3300 ENTERPRISE PARKWAY, BEACHWOOD OH 44122
Douglas M Pasquale	director	245 FICHER AVE STE D-1, COSTA MESA CA 92626
W Blake Baird	director, officer: CHAIRMAN AND CEO	1411 SAND ISLAND PARKWAY, HONOLULU HI 96819
Linda Assante	director	C/O TERRENO REALTY CORP., 101 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
David M Lee	director	101 MONTGOMERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Gabriela Franco Parcella	director	101 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Dennis Polk	director	44201 NOBEL DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94538
Peter J Merlone	director	2840 DIVISADERO, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94123
John Tull Meyer	officer: EVP	101 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Jaime Jackson Cannon	officer: CFO	101 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Andrew Thomas Burke	officer: EVP	101 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104