TriState Capital Holdings (TriState Capital Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is TriState Capital Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TriState Capital Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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TriState Capital Holdings (TriState Capital Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » TriState Capital Holdings Inc (NAS:TSC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

301 Grant Street, One Oxford Centre, Suite 2700, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, 15219

Website

https://www.tristatecapitalbank.com

TriState Capital Holdings Inc provides various commercial and private banking services to middle-market businesses and high-net-worth individuals in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Bank and Investment Management. Its Investment Management segment provides advisory and sub-advisory investment management services primarily to institutional investors, mutual funds and individual investors. The company generates maximum revenue from the Bank segment.

Executives

Michael Robert Harris	director	C/O TRISTATE CAPITAL HOLDINGS ONE OXFORD CENTER, 27TH FL. PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Kim Ruth	director	C/O TRISTATE CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC 301 GRANT STREET, SUITE 2700 PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Anthony J. Buzzelli	director	C/O TRISTATE CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC, ONE OXFORD CENTRE, SUITE 2700, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
David L Bonvenuto	director	C/O TRISTATE CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC. 301 GRANT STREET, SUITE 2700 PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Audrey Dunning	director	242 MEADOWBROOK DRIVE, CRANBERRY TOWNSHIP PA 16066
Timothy J Riddle	officer: CEO, Chartwell Inv. Partners	CHARTWELL INVESTMENT PARTNERS, L.P., 1235 WESTLAKES DR., SUITE 400, BERWYN PA 19312
David J Demas	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O TRISTATE CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC. ONE OXFORD CENTRE, SUITE 2700 PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Brian S Fetterolf	director, officer: CEO, Director TSC	C/O TRISTATE CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC. ONE OXFORD CENTRE, SUITE 2700 PITTSBURGH PA 15219
E.h. Dewhurst	director	C/O TRISTATE CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC. ONE OXFORD CENTRE, SUITE 2700 PITTSBURGH PA 15219
James F Getz	director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	C/O TRISTATE CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC, ONE OXFORD CENTRE, SUITE 2700, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Christopher M Doody	director	20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
James J. Dolan	director	C/O TRISTATE CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC., ONE OXFORD CENTRE, SUITE 2700, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
James E. Minnick	director	C/O TRISTATE CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC. ONE OXFORD CENTRE, SUITE 2700 PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Richard B. Seidel	director	C/O TRISTATE CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC. ONE OXFORD CENTRE, SUITE 2700 PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Helen Hanna Casey	director	C/O TRISTATE CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC. ONE OXFORD CENTRE, SUITE 2700 PITTSBURGH PA 15219