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UMB Financial Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, UMB Financial's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

UMB Financial Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, UMB Financial's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where UMB Financial's Predictability Rank falls into.



UMB Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

UMB Financial Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of UMB Financial's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


UMB Financial Business Description

UMB Financial logo
Industry
Financial Services » Banks NAICS : 522110 SIC : 6029
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1010 Grand Boulevard, Kansas City, MO, USA, 64106
UMB Financial Corp, or UMBF, is a financial services holding company offering a suite of banking, asset management, and health spending solutions. Its customer base includes commercial, institutional, and personal customers across the United States. The company's banking subsidiaries own and operate banking and wealth-management centres mostly throughout the Midwest and Southwest regions of the U.S. Subsidiaries of the holding company and its lead bank, UMB Bank, include mutual fund and alternative investment services groups, single-purpose companies that deal with brokerage services and insurance, and a registered investment advisory. The bank's revenue is split nearly evenly between interest income and noninterest income.
Executives
Kemper J Mariner director, officer: Chairman and CEO 1010 GRAND BLVD. KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Peterman Tamara director 1010 GRAND BLVD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Graves Greg M director 1010 GRAND BLVD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Davidson Janine director 1010 GRAND BLVD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Shankar Ram officer: Chief Financial Officer 1010 GRAND BLVD. KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Rine James D officer: President UMB Bank, n.a. 1010 GRAND BOULEVARD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
King Stacy H officer: Chief Risk Officer 1010 GRAND BLVD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Cornelius James officer: Executive Vice President 1010 GRAND BOULEVARD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Johnson Shannon Andresen officer: Chief Administrative Officer 1010 GRAND BLVD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Macke Kevin M officer: Executive Vice President 1010 GRAND BOULEVARD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Terry Thomas S officer: Chief Credit Officer 1010 GRAND BOULEVARD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Pauls John officer: EVP & General Counsel 1010 GRAND BLVD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Wendel Abigail M officer: President - Consumer Banking 1010 GRAND BOULEVARD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Newton Nikki Farentino officer: President, Private Wealth Mgmt 1010 GRAND BLVD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Beaird Robert Brian officer: Chief Human Resource Officer 1010 GRAND BLVD KANSAS CITY MO 64106

UMB Financial Headlines

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