Via Renewables (Via Renewables) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Via Renewables Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Via Renewables (Via Renewables) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Via Renewables Inc (NAS:VIA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

VIASP.PFD:USA SLE:Germany

Address

12140 Wickchester Lane, Suite 100, Houston, TX, USA, 77079

Website

https://www.viarenewables.com

Via Renewables Inc is an independent retail energy services company. It provides residential and commercial customers in competitive markets across the United States with an alternative choice for natural gas and electricity. Via Renewables offers its customers a variety of product and service choices, including stable and predictable energy costs and green product alternatives. Its segments are Retail Electricity and Retail Natural Gas. The key revenue is derived from the Retail Electricity segment in which the company purchase electricity supply through physical and financial transactions with market counterparties and ISOs and supplies electricity to residential and commercial consumers pursuant to fixed-price and variable-price contracts.

Executives

Andrew Stephen Kennedy	director	12140 WICKCHESTER LANE, SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77079
Maxwell W Keith Iii	director, 10 percent owner	12140 WICKCHESTER LANE, SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77079
Amanda Bush	director	12140 WICKCHESTER LN, SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77057
Barbara Clay	officer: Acting General Counsel and Sec	C/O GOOD COUNSEL SERVICES, LLC, 111 FARMS ROAD, STAMFORD CT 06903
Mike Barajas	officer: Chief Financial Officer	12140 WICKCHESTER LN, STE 100, HOUSTON TX 77079
Paul Konikowski	officer: Chief Operating Officer	12140 WICKCHESTER LN, STE 100, HOUSTON TX 77079
Jones James G Ii	director	12140 WICKCHESTER LN, SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77079
Evans Nick W Jr	director	6205 PEACHTREE DUNWOODY ROAD, ATLANTA GA 30328
Kevin M Mcminn	officer: Chief Operating Officer	12140 WICKCHESTER LANE, SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77079
Nathan Kroeker	director, officer: See Remarks	12160 WICKCHESTER LN, SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77079
Gil Melman	officer: See Remarks	12140 WICKCHESTER LN, SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77079
Jason K. Garrett	officer: Executive Vice President	2105 CITYWEST BLVD., SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77042
Robert Lawrence Lane	officer: Vice President and CFO	12140 WICKCHESTER LANE, SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77079
Kenneth Michael Hartwick	director	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Electric Holdco, Llc	10 percent owner	12140 WICKCHESTER LANE, SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77079