WisdomTree (WisdomTree) Predictability Rank

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What is WisdomTree Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

WisdomTree Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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WisdomTree (WisdomTree) Business Description

Industry

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Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1WT:Germany

Address

250 West 34th Street, 3rd Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10119

Website

https://www.wisdomtree.com

WisdomTree Inc is a financial innovator, offering a well-diversified suite of exchange-traded products (ETPs), models, and solutions. It offers a broad range of ETFs and exchange-traded products (ETPs). The firm also engages in developing next-generation digital products and structures, including digital funds and tokenized assets, as well as its blockchain-native digital wallet, WisdomTree Prime.

Executives

Rilla S Delorier	director	5415 EVERGREEN WAY, EVERETT WA 98203
Peter M Ziemba	director	250 WEST 34TH STREET, 3RD FLOOR, C/O WISDOMTREE, INC., NEW YORK NY 10119
Shamla Naidoo	director	1104 LINNEA LN, SOUTHLAKE TX 76092
Tonia L Pankopf	director	8 SOUND SHORE DR STE 215, GREENWICH CT 06830
Daniela Mielke	director	8500 GOVERNORS HILL DRIVE, SYMMES TOWNSHIP OH 45249
Lynn S. Blake	director	250 WEST 34TH STREET, 3RD FLOOR, C/O WISDOMTREE INVESTMENTS, INC., NEW YORK NY 10119
Deborah Fuhr	director	C/O LGBTQ LOYALTY HOLDINGS, INC.,, 2435 N DIXIE HWY, WILTON MANORS FL 33305
Lion Point Capital, Lp	other: See Explanation of Responses	250 WEST 55TH STREET, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Lion Point Holdings Gp, Llc	other: See Explanation of Responses	250 WEST 55TH STREET, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Didric Cederholm	other: See Explanation of Responses	250 WEST 55TH STREET, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
David M Yates	officer: Chief Information Officer	250 WEST 34TH STREET, 3RD FLOOR, C/O WISDOMTREE, INC., NEW YORK NY 10119
Jonathan L Steinberg	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	250 WEST 34TH STREET, 3RD FLOOR, C/O WISDOMTREE, INC., NEW YORK NY 10119
Harold Iii Singleton	director	C/O WISDOMTREE INVESTMENTS, INC., 230 PARK AVENUE, 3RD FLOOR WEST, NEW YORK NY 10169
Frank Salerno	director	C/O K-SEA TRANSPORTATION PARTNERS L.P., 3245 RICHMOND TERRACE, STATEN ISLAND NY 10303
Smita Conjeevaram	director	70 HERETOLD ROAD, BRONXVILLE NY 17708