Wyndham Hotels & Resorts (Wyndham Hotels & Resorts) Predictability Rank

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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Wyndham Hotels & Resorts (Wyndham Hotels & Resorts) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc (NYSE:WH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2WY:Germany

Address

22 Sylvan Way, Parsippany, NJ, USA, 07054

Website

https://www.wyndhamhotels.com

As of Dec. 31, 2022, Wyndham Hotels & Resorts operates 843,000 rooms across more than 20 brands predominantly in the economy and midscale segments. Super 8 is the largest brand, representing around 19% of all rooms, with Days Inn (14%) and Ramada (14%) the next two largest brands. During the past several years, the company has expanded its extended stay/lifestyle brands, which appeal to travelers seeking to experience the local culture of a given location. Wyndham launched a new extended stay economy scale segment concept, ECHO, in the spring of 2022. The United States represents roughly 60% of total rooms. The company closed its La Quinta acquisition in the second quarter of 2018, adding around 90,000 rooms at the time the deal closed.

Executives

Nicola Rossi	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	WYNDHAM WORLDWIDE CORPORATION, 7 SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Lisa Checchio	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	22 SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Michele Allen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	22 SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Paul F Cash	director, officer: Gen. Counsel & Corp. Sec.	C/O WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS, INC., 22 SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Scott R. Strickland	officer: Chief Info. Officer	C/O WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS, INC., 22 SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Scott Lepage	officer: President, the Americas	WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS, INC., 22 SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Stephen P Holmes	director	C/O CENDANT, 9 WEST 57TH, NEW YORK NY 10019
Monica Melancon	officer: Chief Human Resource Officer	WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS, INC., 22 SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Ronald L Nelson	director
Mary R Falvey	officer: Chief Admin. Officer	WYNDHAM WORLDWIDE CORPORATION, 7 SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Geoffrey A Ballotti	director, officer: President & Chief Exec Officer	36 S. PENNSYLVANIA STREET, SUITE 500, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Thomas Hunter Barber	officer: Chief Stra & Dev Officer	C/O WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS, INC., 22 SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
David B Wyshner	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O XPO LOGISTICS, INC., FIVE AMERICAN LANE, GREENWICH CT 06831
Pauline Richards	director	ARIES PARTNERS AND ARMOUR REINSURANCE LT, 11 CHURCH STREET, P.O. BOX HM 66, HAMILTON HM 11 D0 00000
Myra J Biblowit	director	THE BREAST CANCER RESEARCH FOUNDATION, 60 EAST 56TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022