Westwood Holdings Group (Westwood Holdings Group) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Westwood Holdings Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Westwood Holdings Group (Westwood Holdings Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Westwood Holdings Group Inc (NYSE:WHG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

200 Crescent Court, Suite 1200, Dallas, TX, USA, 75201

Website

https://www.westwoodgroup.com

Westwood Holdings Group Inc through its subsidiaries is engaged in managing investment assets and providing services for its clients. The company operates its business through the Advisory and Trust segments. Its advisory segment provides investment advisory services to corporate retirement plans, public retirement plans, endowments, foundations, individuals and the Westwood Funds, as well as investment sub-advisory services to mutual funds and its trust segment. The Trust segment offers trust and custodial services to its clients and to its advisory segment and sponsors common trust funds to institutions and high net worth individuals. It generates maximum revenue from the Advisory segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the United States.

Executives

John Porter Montgomery	officer: COO	200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75201
Leah Bennett	officer: President-Westwood Wealth Mgmt	200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75201
Ehinger John Anthony Jr	officer: Head of Legal, CCO	279 BENSON LAN, COPPELL TX 75019
Matthew Lockridge	officer: Head, U.S. Value Inv.	200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75201
Jcp Investment Management, Llc	10 percent owner	1177 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1320, HOUSTON TX 77027
Adrian Helfert	officer: CIO, Multi-Asset Inv.	200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75201
Richard M Frank	director	4441 W AIRPORT FREEWAY, IRVING TX 75062
Brian O Casey	director, officer: President & CEO	200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75201
Raymond E Wooldridge	director	200 CRESCENT COURT, STE 1200, DALLAS TX 75201
Fabian Gomez	officer: Chief Operating Officer	200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75201
Randy A Bowman	director	200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75201
Jcp Investment Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1	1177 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1320, HOUSTON TX 77027
Jcp Investment Partners, Lp	10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1	1177 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1320, HOUSTON TX 77027
Jcp Investment Partnership, Lp	10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1	1177 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1320, HOUSTON TX 77027
James C Pappas	10 percent owner	1177 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1320, HOUSTON TX 77027