Westlake (Westlake) Predictability Rank

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What is Westlake Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Westlake Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Westlake (Westlake) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Westlake Corp (NYSE:WLK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UEO:Germany

Address

2801 Post Oak Boulevard, Suite 600, Houston, TX, USA, 77056

Website

https://www.westlake.com

Westlake Corp is a manufacturer and global supplier of chemicals, polymers and building products. Its Performance and Essential Materials segment offers a wide range of essential building blocks for making products utilized in everyday living, including olefins, vinyl chemicals, polyethylene, and epoxies. Its Housing and Infrastructure Products segment produces key finished goods for building products, pipe and fittings, and global compounds businesses.

Executives

Robert F. Buesinger	officer: Sr. Vice President, Vinyls	2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056
David Tsung-hung Chao	director, 10 percent owner	1000 UPTOWN PARK BLVD. #34, HOUSTON TX 77056
Kimberly S Lubel	director	P.O. BOX 696000, SAN ANTONIO TX 78269-6000
Johnathan Stevan Zoeller	officer: VP and CAO	2801 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056
Thomas J. Janssens	officer: SVP, Ops - PEM & Corp Logistic	2801 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056
Catherine T. Chao	director, 10 percent owner	5815 NE 32ND AVE, PORTLAND OR 97211
Carolyn Chao Sabat	director, 10 percent owner	3019 CHEVY CHASE DR., HOUSTON TX 77019
Albert Chao	director, officer: President and CEO	2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056
Roger L. Kearns	officer: EVP, Vinyls Chemicals	2801 POST OAK BLVD., HOUSTON TX 77056
L. Benjamin Ederington	officer: VP, General Counsel, Corp Secy	2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056
Mark Steven Bender	officer: Vice President/Treasurer	2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056
Lawrence E. Teel	officer: Vice President, Olefins	2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056
Andrew Kenner	officer: VP -- Manufacturing	2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056
Ttwfgp Llc	10 percent owner	2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056
George J Mangieri	officer: Vice President and Controller	2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056