Zumiez (Zumiez) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Zumiez Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Zumiez Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Zumiez (Zumiez) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Zumiez Inc (NAS:ZUMZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ZM3:Germany

Address

4001 204th Street SW, Lynnwood, WA, USA, 98036

Website

https://www.zumiez.com

Zumiez Inc is a United-States-based specialty retailer engaged in the sale of apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods. The company provides merchandise with cultural elements coming from fashion, music, art and from action sports, streetwear, and other unique lifestyles. The company operates under the brands Zumiez and Blue Tomato, and through both physical stores and websites. Most of the company's stores are located in the U.S., with the rest in Canada, Australia, and Europe. The U.S. market contributes to the majority of the company's revenue.

Executives

Guy Matthew Harkless	director	4001 204TH STREET SW, LYNNWOOD WA 98036
James P. Murphy	director	999 LAKE DRIVE, ISSAQUAH WA 98027
Adam Christopher Ellis	officer: President International	4001 204TH STREET SW, LYNNWOOD WA 98036
Richard Miles Brooks	officer: President and CEO	6300 MERRILL CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE B, EVERETT WA 98203
Troy R. Brown	officer: Ex. V.P. of E-commerce	4001 204TH STREET SW, LYNNWOOD WA 98036
Carmen Bauza	director	2400 WEST CENTRAL ROAD, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60192
Chris K. Visser	officer: General Counsel & Corp. Sec.	4001 204TH STREET SW, LYNNWOOD WA 98036
Holmes Kalen	director	2401 UTAH AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 800, SEATTLE WA 98134
Thomas D Campion	director, officer: Chairman of Board of Directors	6300 MERRILL CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE B, EVERETT WA 98203
Work Christopher Codington	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4001 204TH STREET SW, LYNNWOOD WA 98036
Sarah Gaines Mccoy	director	6300 MERRILL CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE B, EVERETT WA 98203-5862
Scott Andrew Bailey	director	4001 204TH STREET SW, LYNNWOOD WA 98036
Matthew L Hyde	director	C/O REI, 6750 SOUTH 228TH ST., KENT WA 98032
Ernest R Johnson	director
Steve Louden	director	C/O ROKU, INC., 150 WINCHESTER CIRCLE, LOS GATOS CA 95032