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Greenbrier (Greenbrier) Altman Z-Score

: 2.04 (As of Today)
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The Altman Z-Score is a model designed to predict the likelihood of a company going bankrupt within the next two years. Created by American finance professor Edward Altman in 1968, the model is specifically designed for publicly traded manufacturing companies with assets greater than $1 million.

Warning Sign:

Altman Z-score of 2.04 is in the grey area. This implies that the company is under some kind of financial stress. If it is below 1.8, the company may face bankruptcy risk.

Greenbrier has a Altman Z-Score of 2.04, indicating it is in Grey Zones. This implies that Greenbrier is in some kind of financial stress. If it is below 1.81, the company may face bankrupcy risk.

The zones of discrimination were as such:

When Altman Z-Score <= 1.8, it is in Distress Zones.
When Altman Z-Score >= 3, it is in Safe Zones.
When Altman Z-Score is between 1.8 and 3, it is in Grey Zones.

The historical rank and industry rank for Greenbrier's Altman Z-Score or its related term are showing as below:

GBX' s Altman Z-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.53   Med: 2.72   Max: 3.88
Current: 2.04

During the past 13 years, Greenbrier's highest Altman Z-Score was 3.88. The lowest was 1.53. And the median was 2.72.


Greenbrier Altman Z-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Greenbrier's Altman Z-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Greenbrier Annual Data
Trend Aug14 Aug15 Aug16 Aug17 Aug18 Aug19 Aug20 Aug21 Aug22 Aug23
Altman Z-Score
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 2.24 2.09 1.64 1.73 1.98

Greenbrier Quarterly Data
May19 Aug19 Nov19 Feb20 May20 Aug20 Nov20 Feb21 May21 Aug21 Nov21 Feb22 May22 Aug22 Nov22 Feb23 May23 Aug23 Nov23 Feb24
Altman Z-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 1.88 1.91 1.98 2.04 2.05

Competitive Comparison

For the Railroads subindustry, Greenbrier's Altman Z-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Altman Z-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Greenbrier Altman Z-Score Distribution

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Greenbrier's Altman Z-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Greenbrier's Altman Z-Score falls into.



Greenbrier Altman Z-Score Calculation

Altman Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.

Greenbrier's Altman Z-Score for today is calculated with this formula:

Z=1.2*X1+1.4*X2+3.3*X3+0.6*X4+1.0*X5
=1.2*0.1882+1.4*0.2331+3.3*0.0585+0.6*0.63+1.0*0.9217
=2.04

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency. GuruFocus does not calculate Altman Z-Score when X4 or X5 value is 0.

Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) ended in Feb. 2024:
Total Assets was $4,044 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,639 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $878 Mil.
Retained Earnings was $943 Mil.
Pre-Tax Income was 38.9 + 41.7 + 41.7 + 27.9 = $150 Mil.
Interest Expense was -23.9 + -21.9 + -20.5 + -20 = $-86 Mil.
Revenue was 862.7 + 808.8 + 1017.4 + 1038.1 = $3,727 Mil.
Market Cap (Today) was $1,596 Mil.
Total Liabilities was $2,533 Mil.

* Note that for stock reported semi-annually or annually, GuruFocus uses latest annual data as the TTM data.

X1=Working Capital/Total Assets
=(Total Current Assets - Total Current Liabilities)/Total Assets
=(1639.3 - 878.2)/4043.6
=0.1882

X2=Retained Earnings/Total Assets
=942.7/4043.6
=0.2331

X3=Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets
=(Pre-Tax Income - Interest Expense)/Total Assets
=(150.2 - -86.3)/4043.6
=0.0585

X4=Market Value Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities
=Market Cap/Total Liabilities
=1595.772/2533.1
=0.63

X5=Revenue/Total Assets
=3727/4043.6
=0.9217

The zones of discrimination were as such:

Distress Zones - 1.81 < Grey Zones < 2.99 - Safe Zones

Greenbrier has a Altman Z-Score of 2.04 indicating it is in Grey Zones.

Study by Altman found that companies that are in Distress Zone have more than 80% of chances of bankruptcy in two years.


Greenbrier  (NYSE:GBX) Altman Z-Score Explanation

X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.

X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.

X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.

X4, Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MVE/TL): The measure shows how much the firm's assets can decline in value (measured by market value of equity plus debt) before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent.

X5, Revenue/Total Assets (S/TA): The capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm's assets.

Read more about Altman Z-Score and the original research.


Be Aware

Altman Z-Score does not apply to financial companies.


Greenbrier Altman Z-Score Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Greenbrier's Altman Z-Score provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Greenbrier (Greenbrier) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
One Centerpoint Drive, Suite 200, Lake Oswego, OR, USA, 97035
Greenbrier Companies Inc designs, manufactures, and markets railroad freight car equipment in North America and Europe, marine barges in North America and provides wheel services, railcar refurbishment, and parts, leasing and other services to the railroad. Its segments include Manufacturing, Maintenance Services and Leasing & Management Services. The company generates a majority of its revenue from the manufacturing segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the United States.
Executives
Martin Raymond Baker officer: SVP, GC & Compliance Officer ONE CENTERPOINTE DRIVE, SUITE 200, LAKE OSWEGO OR 97035
Patrick J Ottensmeyer director PO BOX 219335, KANSAS CITY MO 64121
Laurie R Dornan officer: SVP, Chief HR Officer ONE CENTERPOINTE DR., SUITE 200, LAKE OSWEGO OR 97035
Charles J Swindells director ONE CENTERPOINTE DR., SUITE 200, LAKE OSWEGO OR 97035
Matthew Joseph Meyer officer: SVP, Finance & CAO 47912 HALYARD ROAD, SUITE 100, PLYMOUTH MI 48170
Ricardo Galvan officer: SVP, GRS ONE CENTERPOINTE DR., SUITE 200, LAKE OSWEGO OR 97035
William A Furman officer: Chairman & CEO ONE CENTERPOINTE DR, SUITE 200, LAKE OSWEGO OR 97035
William J. Krueger officer: President, GMO THE GREENBRIER COMPANIES, INC., ONE CENTERPOINTE DR., #200, LAKE OSWEGO OR 97035
Antonio O Garza director 500 W. ILLINOIS, SUITE 100, MIDLAND TX 79701
Brian J Comstock officer: EVP, Sales and Marketing 19262 S REDLAND ROAD, OREGON CITY OR 97045
Donald A Washburn director 222 SW HARRISON STREET, APT 23C, PORTLAND OR 97201
James R Huffines director C/O PLAINSCAPITAL CORPORATION, 2323 VICTORY AVENUE. SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75219
Alejandro Centurion officer: EVP and President, GMO ONE CENTERPOINTE AVE., STE. 200, LAKE OSWEGO OR 97035
Mark J Rittenbaum officer: EVP, Chief Comm & Leasing Off
Duane Charles Mcdougall director C/O INFOCUS CORP, 277008 SW PARKWAY AVE, WILSONVILLE OR 97070