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Macy's Altman Z-Score

: 0.43 (As of Today)
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Warning Sign:

Altman Z-score of 0.43 is in distress zone. This implies bankrupcy possibility in the next two years.

Macy's has a Altman Z-Score of 0.43, indicating it is in Distress Zones. This implies bankrupcy possibility in the next two years.

The zones of discrimination were as such:

When Altman Z-Score is less than 1.81, it is in Distress Zones.
When Altman Z-Score is greater than 2.99, it is in Safe Zones.
When Altman Z-Score is between 1.81 and 2.99, it is in Grey Zones.

NYSE:M' s Altman Z-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.38   Med: 2.07   Max: 3.25
Current: 0.43

0.38
3.25

During the past 13 years, Macy's's highest Altman Z-Score was 3.25. The lowest was 0.38. And the median was 2.07.


Macy's Altman Z-Score Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

* Premium members only.

Macy's Annual Data
Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20
Altman Z-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 2.65 2.46 2.63 2.74 2.13

Macy's Quarterly Data
Jan16 Apr16 Jul16 Oct16 Jan17 Apr17 Jul17 Oct17 Jan18 Apr18 Jul18 Oct18 Jan19 Apr19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20
Altman Z-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 1.61 2.13 1.10 0.82 0.38

Competitive Comparison
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap.


Macy's Altman Z-Score Distribution

* The bar in red indicates where Macy's's Altman Z-Score falls into.



Macy's Altman Z-Score Calculation

Altman Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.

Macy's's Altman Z-Score for today is calculated with this formula:

Z=1.2*X1+1.4*X2+3.3*X3+0.6*X4+1.0*X5
=1.2*0.0367+1.4*0+3.3*-0.2295+0.6*0.1983+1.0*1.022
=0.43

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency. GuruFocus does not calculate Altman Z-Score when X4 or X5 value is 0.

Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) ended in Oct. 2020:
Total Assets was $19,214 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $7,357 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $6,651 Mil.
Retained Earnings was $0 Mil.
Pre-Tax Income was -217 + -729 + -4157 + 449 = $-4,654 Mil.
Interest Expense was -80 + -70 + -49 + -45 = $-244 Mil.
Revenue was 4185 + 3727 + 3148 + 8577 = $19,637 Mil.
Market Cap (Today) was $3,366 Mil.
Total Liabilities was $16,971 Mil.

* Note that for stock reported semi-annually or annually, GuruFocus uses latest annual data as the TTM data.

X1=Working Capital/Total Assets
=(Total Current Assets - Total Current Liabilities)/Total Assets
=(7357 - 6651)/19214
=0.0367

X3=Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets
=(Pre-Tax Income - Interest Expense)/Total Assets
=(-4654 - -244)/19214
=-0.2295

X4=Market Value Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities
=Market Cap/Total Liabilities
=3366.165/16971
=0.1983

X5=Revenue/Total Assets
=19637/19214
=1.022

The zones of discrimination were as such:

Distress Zones - 1.81 < Grey Zones < 2.99 - Safe Zones

Macy's has a Altman Z-Score of 0.43 indicating it is in Distress Zones.

Study by Altman found that companies that are in Distress Zone have more than 80% of chances of bankruptcy in two years.


Macy's  (NYSE:M) Altman Z-Score Explanation

X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.

X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.

X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.

X4, Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MVE/TL): The measure shows how much the firm's assets can decline in value (measured by market value of equity plus debt) before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent.

X5, Revenue/Total Assets (S/TA): The capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm's assets.

Read more about Altman Z-Score and the original research.


Be Aware

Altman Z-Score does not apply to financial companies.


Macy's Altman Z-Score Related Terms


Macy's Altman Z-Score Headlines

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