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Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack  (NYSE:PBY) Altman Z-Score: 2.58 (As of Today)

Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack has a Z-score of 2.58, indicating it is in Grey Zones. This implies that Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack is in some kind of financial stress. If it is below 1.81, the company may faces bankrupcy risk.

The zones of discrimination were as such:

When Z-Score is less than 1.81, it is in Distress Zones.
When Z-Score is greater than 2.99, it is in Safe Zones.
When Z-Score is between 1.81 and 2.99, it is in Grey Zones.


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

* Premium members only.

Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack Annual Data

Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15
Altman Z-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 2.38 2.31 2.22 2.17 2.06

Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack Quarterly Data

Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Apr15 Jul15 Oct15
Altman Z-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 2.14 2.06 2.17 2.32 2.46

Competitive Comparison
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap.


Calculation

Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.

Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack's Altman Z-Score for today is calculated with this formula:

Z=1.2*X1+1.4*X2+3.3*X3+0.6*X4+1.0*X5
=1.2*0.1231+1.4*0.2733+3.3*0.007+0.6*1.0602+1.0*1.3933
=2.58

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) ended in Oct. 2015:
Total Assets was $1,492 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $797 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $614 Mil.
Retained Earnings was $408 Mil.
Pre-Tax Income was 1.553 + 7.639 + 20.181 + -32.344 = $-3 Mil.
Interest Expense was -3.217 + -3.262 + -3.329 + -3.604 = $-13 Mil.
Revenue was 508.136 + 526.546 + 542.261 + 502.424 = $2,079 Mil.
Market Cap (M) (Today) was $1,002 Mil.
Total Liabilities was $945 Mil.

X1=Working Capital/Total Assets
=(Total Current Assets - Total Current Liabilities)/Total Assets
=(797.481 - 613.818)/1492.355
=0.1231

X2=Retained Earnings/Total Assets
=407.854/1492.355
=0.2733

X3=Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets
=(Pre-Tax Income + Interest Expense)/Total Assets
=(-2.971 + -13.412)/1492.355
=0.007

X4=Market Value Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities
=Market Cap (M)/Total Liabilities
=1001.570/944.663
=1.0602

X5=Revenue/Total Assets
=2079.367/1492.355
=1.3933

The zones of discrimination were as such:

Distress Zones - 1.81 < Grey Zones < 2.99 - Safe Zones

Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack has a Z-score of 2.58 indicating it is in Grey Zones.

Study by Altman found that companies that are in Distress Zone have more than 80% of chances of bankruptcy in two years.


Explanation

X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.

X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.

X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.

X4, Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MVE/TL): The measure shows how much the firm's assets can decline in value (measured by market value of equity plus debt) before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent.

X5, Revenue/Total Assets (S/TA): The capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm's assets.

Read more about Altman Z-score and the original research.


Be Aware

Z score does not apply to financial companies.


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