What is Cabela′s Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Cabela′s's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Cabela′s's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Specialty Retail subindustry, Cabela′s's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Cabela′s's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Cabela′s's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Cabela′s's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Cabela′s Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Cabela′s (Cabela′s) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Cabela's Inc was founded in 1961. The Company is a specialty retailer, and the direct marketer, of hunting, fishing, camping, and related outdoor merchandise. It also issues Cabela's CLUB Visa credit card, which serves as its customer loyalty rewards program. The Company operates in four segments Retail, Direct, Financial Services, and Corporate Overhead and Other. In retail segment the Company operated 77 retail stores, 68 stores in 36 states and nine stores in six Canadian provinces. During 2015, it opened 13 retail stores, 11 stores in the United States and two in Canada. It has two basic store formats. Its legacy stores refer to traditional retail stores that opened in August 2008 and earlier. It has 28 traditional, or legacy, retail stores, which offers a tourist-type experience. Its retail stores often attract the construction and development of hotels, restaurants, and other retail establishments adjacent to these stores. The Direct segment sells products through its e-commerce websites (Cabelas.com and Cabelas.ca) and direct mail catalogs. It markets its products through websites, mobile devices, and its print catalog distributions. The Financial Services segment provides customers with a rewards program that enhances revenue, operating profitability, and customer loyalty in its Retail and Direct businesses. Through its wholly-owned bank subsidiary, World's Foremost Bank, it issues and manages the Cabela's CLUB Visa credit card, a rewards based credit card program. The Company's product assortments includes merchandise and equipment for hunting, fishing, marine use, camping, and recreational sport shooting, along with casual and outdoor apparel and footwear, optics, vehicle accessories, and gifts and home furnishings with an outdoor theme. The Corporate Overhead and Other segment includes the value of unredeemed points earned that are associated with the Company's loyalty rewards programs for Cabela's CLUB issued credit cards, net of the estimated costs of the points; amounts received from outfitter services; real estate rental income; land sales; and fees earned from a travel business and other complementary business services. The Company competes with the outdoor recreation and casual apparel and footwear markets. It competes directly or indirectly with other broad-line merchants, large-format sporting goods stores and chains, mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs, discount and department stores, small specialty retailers, and catalog and Internet-based retailers.
Executives
| James F Wright |
director |
TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY, 200 POWELL PLACE, BRENTWOOD TN 37027 |
| Thomas L Millner |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
|
| Beth M Pritchard |
director |
BORDERS GROUP INC, 100 PHOENIX DRIVE, ANN ARBOR MI 48108 |
| Peter S Swinburn |
director |
440 S. CHURCH STREET, SUITE 700, CHARLOTTE NY 28202 |
| Donna M Milrod |
director |
60 WALL STREET, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005 |
| Michael R Mccarthy |
director |
1601 DODGE ST, SUITE 3800, OMAHA NE 68102 |
| Scott K Williams |
officer: PRESIDENT |
170 COUNTRYSIDE DRIVE, P.O. BOX 409, BELLEVILLE WI 53508 |
| Theodore M Armstrong |
director |
7730 CARONDELET, SUITE 103, ST. LOUIS MO 63105 |
| Ralph W Castner |
officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT & CFO |
ONE CABELA DRIVE, SIDNEY NE 69160 |
| Reuben Mark |
director |
300 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Stephen Murray |
director |
CCMP CAPITAL ADVISORS, LLC, 245 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10067 |
| Michael Callahan |
officer: Senior Vice President |
ONE CABELA DRIVE, SIDNEY NE 69160 |
| David Roehr |
officer: Executive Vice President |
ONE CABELA DRIVE, SIDNEY NE 69160 |
| Mccarthy Group Inc |
10 percent owner |
1601 DODGE ST, SUITE 3800, OMAHA NE 68102 |
| Fulcrum Growth Partners Llc |
10 percent owner |
1125 SOUTH 103RD STREET, #450, OMAHA NE 68124 |
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