What is Chemung Financial Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Chemung Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Chemung Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Chemung Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Chemung Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Banks Industry
For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Chemung Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Chemung Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Chemung Financial Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | -7.10 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.08% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Chemung Financial (Chemung Financial) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
One Chemung Canal Plaza, Elmira, NY, USA, 14901
Chemung Financial Corp is a bank holding firm. It provides financial services, including demand, savings, and time deposits, commercial, residential, and consumer loans, letters of credit, wealth management services, employee benefit plans, securities, and insurance brokerage services. Its business operations are organized into two segments, Core Banking, and Wealth Management services. It derives its revenues from the core banking business.
Executives
| Meade Joseph F Iv |
director |
ONE CHEMUNG CANAL PLAZA, PO BOX 1522, ELMIRA NY 14902-1522 |
| Thomas W Wirth |
officer: Senior Vice President |
ONE CHEMUNG CANAL PLAZA, P.O. BOX 1522, ELMIRA NY 14902-1522 |
| Mckim Dale M. Iii |
officer: EVP, CFO & Treasurer |
ONE CHEMUNG CANAL PLAZA, PO BOX 1522, ELMIRA NY 14902-1522 |
| Jeffrey P. Kenefick |
officer: Regional President |
ONE CHEMUNG CANAL PLAZA, PO BOX 1522, ELMIRA NY 14902-1522 |
| Loren D Cole |
officer: Executive Vice President |
ONE CHEMUNG CANAL PLAZA, ELMIRA NY 14901 |
| Thomas R. Tyrrell |
director |
ONE CHEMUNG CANAL PLAZA, ELMIRA NY 14901 |
| John J Stempin |
officer: Controller |
ONE CHEMUNG CANAL PLAZA, PO BOX 1522, ELMIRA NY 14902-1522 |
| Ronald M Bentley |
officer: President & COO |
ONE CHEMUNG CANAL PLAZA, ELMIRA NY 14901 |
| Koen G. Long |
officer: Controller |
ONE CHEMUNG CANAL PLAZA, PO BOX 1522, ELMIRA NY 14902-1522 |
| Denise V Gonick |
director |
ONE CHEMUNG CANAL PLAZA, PO BOX 1522, ELMIRA NY 14902-1522 |
| Tranter G. Thomas Jr. |
director |
ONE CHEMUNG CANAL PLAZA, ELMIRA NY 14901 |
| Jeffrey B Streeter |
director |
ONE CHEMUNG CANAL PLAZA, PO BOX 1522, ELMIRA NY 14902-1522 |
| Robert H Dalrymple |
director, 10 percent owner |
ONE CHEMUNG CANAL PLAZA, PO BOX 1522, ELMIRA NY 14902-1522 |
| Kimberly A Hazelton |
officer: Executive Vice President |
ONE CHEMUNG CANAL PLAZA, PO BOX 1522, ELMIRA NY 14902-1522 |
| Archibold Raimundo C. Jr |
director |
ONE CHEMUNG CANAL PLAZA, PO BOX 1522, ELMIRA NY 14902-1522 |
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