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Comtech Telecommunications (Comtech Telecommunications) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 3.69% (As of Apr. 27, 2024)


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What is Comtech Telecommunications Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Comtech Telecommunications's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 3.69%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Comtech Telecommunications's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Communication Equipment subindustry, Comtech Telecommunications's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Comtech Telecommunications's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Hardware Industry

For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, Comtech Telecommunications's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Comtech Telecommunications's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Comtech Telecommunications Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-3.26

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=3.69%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Comtech Telecommunications  (NAS:CMTL) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Comtech Telecommunications Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Comtech Telecommunications (Comtech Telecommunications) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
68 South Service Road, Suite 230, Melville, NY, USA, 11747
Comtech Telecommunications Corp is a provider of modern communications solutions. The company is engaged in designing, developing, producing and marketing products, systems, and services for communications solutions. It is engaged in two business segments, Satellite and Space Communications and Terrestrial and Wireless Networks. Majority of sales are generated from Satellite and Space Communications segment.
Executives
Wendi B. Carpenter director 2401 EAST 86TH ST., BLOOMINGTON MN 55425
Mark R. Quinlan director 150 EAST 52ND STREET, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Bruce T Crawford director 255 SOUTH KING ST., SUITE 1800, SEATTLE WA 98104
Ellen M. Lord director 1100 N. WOOD DALE ROAD, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Maria Hedden officer: Chief Operating Officer 68 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD, SUITE 230, MELVILLE NY 11747
Donald E. Walther officer: Chief Legal Officer 500 108TH AVENUE NE, SUITE 1500, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Michael Bondi officer: Corporate Controller 68 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD, SUITE 230, MELVILLE NY 11747
Ken Allen Peterman director 68 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD, SUITE 230, MELVILLE NY 11747
Yelena Simonyuk officer: Chief Legal Officer 68 S. SERVICE ROAD, SUITE 230, MELVILLE NY 11747
Michael Porcelain officer: VP of Finance & Internal Audit 68 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD, SUITE 230, MELVILLE NY 11747
Yacov A Shamash director
Lisa /adv Lesavoy director 166 E 63RD ST, NEW YORK NY 10021
Judy Chambers director 68 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD, SUITE 230, MELVILLE NY 11747
Richard L Burt officer: Sr. Vice President 68 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD, SUITE 230, MELVILLE NY 11747
John Branscum officer: Sr. Vice President COMTECH TELECOMMUNICATIONS CORP., 68 SOUTH SERVICE RD., SUITE 230, MELVILLE NY 11747