FS Bancorp (FS Bancorp) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.10% (As of Apr. 27, 2024)

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What is FS Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, FS Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of FS Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, FS Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

FS Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, FS Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where FS Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

FS Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-6.90

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.10%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

(Balance Sheet Cash And Cash Equivalents + Money Market Investments)

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

FS Bancorp (NAS:FSBW) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

FS Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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FS Bancorp (FS Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » FS Bancorp Inc (NAS:FSBW) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6920 220th Street South West, Mountlake Terrace, WA, USA, 98043

Website

https://www.fsbwa.com

FS Bancorp Inc is the holding company of 1st Security Bank, a diversified lender with a focus on the origination of commercial real estate, one-to-four-family, and home equity loans, consumer loans, including a variety of indirect home improvement (fixture secured loans), and marine loans, and commercial business loans. It has two operating segments; The commercial and consumer banking segment provides diversified financial products and services to its commercial and consumer customers through Bank branches, automated teller machines, online banking platforms, mobile banking apps, and telephone banking, and The home lending segment originates one-to-four-family residential mortgage loans for sale in the secondary markets as well as loans held for investment.

Executives

Robert B Fuller	officer: Chief Credit Officer	111 NORTH WALL STREET, SPOKANE WA 99201
Stephanie Nicklaus	officer: Chief Credit Officer	6920 220TH STREET SW, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Pamela Marie Andrews	director	6920 220TH STREET SW, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Fs Bancorp, Inc.	officer: Chief Credit Officer	6920 220TH STREET SW, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Ben Crowl	officer: Chief Lending Officer	6920 220TH STREET SW, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Shana Allen	officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer	6920 220TH STREET SW, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Joseph P. Zavaglia	director	C/O FS BANCORP, INC., 6920 220TH STREET SW, SUITE 300, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Mark Tueffers	director, other: Director of the Bank	6920 220TH STREET, SUITE 300, MOUNT LAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Margaret R. Piesik	director	C/O FS BANCORP, INC., 6920 220TH STREET SW, SUITE 300, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Dennis V O'leary	officer: Chief Lending Officer	6920 220TH STREET, SW, MOUNT LAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Donn C Costa	officer: Executive VP Home Lending	6920 220TH STREET SW, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Joseph C. Adams	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O FS BANCORP, INC., 6920 220TH STREET SW, SUITE 300, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Lisa Cleary	officer: Chief Operating Officer	6920 220TH STREET SW, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Marina Cofer-wildsmith	director	C/O FS BANCORP, INC., 6920 220TH STREET SW, SUITE 300, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Erin Burr	officer: CRO, CRA Officer, EVP	6920 220TH STREET SW, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043