What is Ingles Markets Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Ingles Markets's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Ingles Markets's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Grocery Stores subindustry, Ingles Markets's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Ingles Markets's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Retail - Defensive Industry
For the Retail - Defensive industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Ingles Markets's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Ingles Markets's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Ingles Markets Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | -8.42 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.02% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Ingles Markets (Ingles Markets) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2913 U.S. Highway 70 West, Black Mountain, NC, USA, 28711
Ingles Markets Inc is a U.S.-based company that is principally engaged in operating a supermarket chain. The company operates the business in the southeast United States, mainly in Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee, with a few stores in Virginia and Alabama as well. The company locates its stores majorly in suburban areas, small towns, and neighborhood areas. It offers a broad range of goods, including food products, pharmacies, health and beauty care products, and general merchandise. The retail business contributes the majority of the company's revenue. The company's real estate ownership of a material portion of total stores enables it to generate rental income.
Executives
| Sharp Laura Ingle |
director |
2913 U.S. HWY. 70 WEST, BLACK MOUNTAIN NC 28711 |
| Michael David Hogan |
officer: President of Subsidiary Milkco |
C/O INGLES MARKETS, INCORPORATED, P.O. BOX 6676, ASHEVILLE NC 28816 |
| Patricia Jackson |
officer: CFO |
P.O. BOX 6676, ASHEVILLE NC 28816 |
| James W Lanning |
director, officer: President, other: Profit Sharing Plan Trustee |
|
| John R Lowden |
director |
140 GREENWICH AVE, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Ernest E. Ferguson |
director |
P.O. BOX 6676, ASHEVILLE NC 28816 |
| Fred Ayers |
director |
2913 US HIGHWAY 70 WEST, BLACK MOUNTAIN NC 28711 |
| Brenda S Tudor |
director, officer: VP Finance, Treasurer, CFO |
|
| L. Keith Collins |
director |
P.O. BOX 6676, ASHEVILLE NC 28816 |
| Laura Anne Laxton Ingle 2011 Irrevocable Trust Dated September 8, 2011 |
10 percent owner |
P.O. BOX 6676, ASHEVILLE NC 28816 |
| Robert Ingle, Sr. Administrative Trust Uta Robert Pierce Ingle Living Trust Dated December 24, 2010 |
10 percent owner |
2913 US HIGHWAY 70 WEST, BLACK MOUNTAIN NC 28711 |
| Robert P Ingle |
director, officer: Chairman and CEO, other: Profit Sharing Plan Trustee |
|
| Ingles Markets Inc Investment/profit Sharing Plan Trust |
10 percent owner |
|
| Ronald B Freeman |
director, officer: Chief Financial Officer, other: Profit Sharing Plan Trustee |
P.O. BOX 6676, ASHEVILLE NC 28816 |
| Ingle Robert P Ii |
director, officer: VP - Operations |
PO BOX 6676, ASHEVILLE NC 28816 |
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