What is Murphy USA Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Murphy USA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Murphy USA's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Specialty Retail subindustry, Murphy USA's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Murphy USA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Murphy USA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Murphy USA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Murphy USA Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | -8.26 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.03% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Murphy USA (Murphy USA) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
200 Peach Street, El Dorado, AR, USA, 71730-5836
Murphy USA Inc is an American retailer of gasoline products and convenience-store merchandise operating in the United States. The stores are 100% company-operated and 90% company-owned; most are adjacent to Walmart stores. The business also contains product supply and wholesale assets, such as product distribution terminals and pipelines. Murphy is positioned in the market as a low-price, high-volume fuel retailer selling through low-cost kiosks and small stores. The stores adjacent to Walmart offer a discount program. The amount of the discount offered can vary based on many factors, including state laws.
Executives
| Renee M Bacon |
officer: SVP, Sales & Ops |
200 PEACH STREET, EL DORADO AR 71730 |
| Jennifer Bridges |
officer: SVP, Asset Development |
200 E. PEACH STREET, EL DORADO AR 71730 |
| Robert J Chumley |
officer: Senior Vice President |
200 PEACH STREET, EL DORADO AR 71730 |
| Robert Madison Murphy |
director |
200 NORTH JEFFERSON SUITE 400, EL DODRADO AR 71730 |
| R Andrew Clyde |
director, officer: President & CEO |
200 PEACH STREET, EL DORADO AR 71730 |
| Christopher A Click |
officer: SVP, Strategy & Development |
200 PEACH ST, EL DORADO AR 71731 |
| Jeanne Linder Phillips |
director |
5421 DRANE DR., DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Smith Donald R Jr |
officer: Vice President & Controller |
200 PEACH STREET, EL DORADO AR 71730 |
| Malynda K West |
officer: EVP, CFO & Treasurer |
200 PEACH STREET, PO BOX 7000, EL DORADO AR 71730 |
| Terry P. Hatten |
officer: SVP |
6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD, STE 800, IRVING TX 75039 |
| Rosemary Turner |
director |
1500 SOLANA BLVD., WESTLAKE TX 76262 |
| David Goebel |
director |
C/O APPLEBEE'S INTERNATIONAL, INC., 4551 W 107TH STREET, OVERLAND PARK KS 66207 |
| Blake Segal |
officer: SVP, QuickChek |
200 E. PEACH STREET, EL DORADO AR 71730 |
| John A Moore |
officer: SVP & Secretary |
200 PEACH ST., P.O. BOX 7000, EL DORADO AR 71730 |
| Claiborne P Deming |
director |
ENTERGY CORP, PO BOX 61000, NEW ORLEANS LA 70161 |
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