Trinity Industries (Trinity Industries) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.06% (As of Apr. 27, 2024)

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What is Trinity Industries Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Trinity Industries's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Trinity Industries's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Railroads subindustry, Trinity Industries's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Trinity Industries's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Trinity Industries's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Trinity Industries's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Trinity Industries Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-7.36

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.06%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Trinity Industries (NYSE:TRN) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Trinity Industries Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Trinity Industries (Trinity Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Trinity Industries Inc (NYSE:TRN) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TTA:Germany TTA:Germany

Address

14221 N. Dallas Parkway, Suite 1100, Dallas, TX, USA, 75254-2957

Website

https://www.trin.net

Trinity Industries Inc. sells and leases railroad products and railcar maintenance services in North America. The company operates under the name TrinityRail in three main segments: railcar leasing and management services, which owns railcars and provides fleet management and administration services; rail products, which builds, sells, and modifies freight and tank railcars and their components; and all other, which sells highway products such as guardrail and other highway barriers. Customers include railroads, leasing companies, and shipping companies in the industries of agriculture, construction, consumer products, energy, and chemicals.

Executives

Eric R Marchetto	other: Officer Trinity Rail	14221 N DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Gregory B Mitchell	other: Chief Commercial Officer	14221 N DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Scott M Ewing	officer: EVP & Chief Legal Officer	14221 N DALLAS PARKWAY SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Jean Savage	director	14221 N DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Todd Maclin	director	P.O. BOX 619100, DALLAS TX 75261
Biesterfeld Robert C Jr	director	14701 CHARLSON RD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347
Veena M Lakkundi	director	3M COMPANY, 3M CENTER, BLDG 220 09 E-02, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Brian D Madison	other: President, TILC	14221 N DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Valueact Capital Master Fund, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Jason G. Anderson	director	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, FOURTH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
John L Adams	officer: Executive Vice President	2525 STEMMONS FREEWAY, DALLAS TX 75207
Melendy E Lovett	director	14221 N DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
William P Ainsworth	director	510 LAKE COOK ROAD, SUITE 100, DEERFIELD X1 60015
Brandon Boze	director, 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Tyrone Michael Jordan	director	8501 NORTH SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 100, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85253