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Alcoa (AA) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share : $1.19 (As of Mar. 2024)


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What is Alcoa Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

Alcoa's adjusted free cash flow per share data for the fiscal year that ended in Dec. 2023 was $-2.472. Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share for the past 10 years together and divide the count will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share, which is $1.19 for the trailing ten years ended in Dec. 2023.

Please click Growth Rate Calculation Example (GuruFocus) to see how GuruFocus calculates Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT)'s revenue growth rate. You can apply the same method to get the Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate using Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share data.

As of today (2024-04-27), Alcoa's current stock price is $ 36.88. Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for the fiscal year that ended in Dec. 2023 was $1.19. Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is 30.99.

During the past 11 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Alcoa was 42.38. The lowest was 22.29. And the median was 28.39.


Alcoa Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Historical Data

The historical data trend for Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Alcoa Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Chart

Alcoa Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - 1.31 1.19

Alcoa Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - 1.19 -

Competitive Comparison of Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share

For the Aluminum subindustry, Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Distribution in the Metals & Mining Industry

For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF falls into.



Alcoa Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Calculation

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

What is Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share? How do we calculate Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years. Let's use an example to explain.

If we want to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of Wal-Mart (WMT) for Dec. 31, 2010, we need to have the inflation data and the free cash flow per share from 2001 through 2010.

We adjusted the 2001 free cash flow per share data with the total inflation from 2001 through 2010 to the equivalent free cash flow in 2010. If the total inflation from 2001 to 2010 is 40%, and Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 a share in 2001, then the 2001's equivalent free cash flow in 2010 is $1.4 a share. If Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 again in 2002, and the total inflation from 2002 through 2010 is 35%, then the equivalent 2002 free cash flow in 2010 is $1.35. So on and so forth, you get the equivalent free cash flow per share of past 10 years. Then you add them together and divided the sum by the count to get Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.

Please note that we use the CPI data of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the CPI data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the CPI data of the United States as default.

For example, Alcoa's adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share data for the fiscal year that ended in Dec. 2023 was:

Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare=Free Cash Flow per Share /CPI of Dec. 2023 (Change)*Current CPI (Dec. 2023)
=-2.472/129.4194*129.4194
=-2.472

Current CPI (Dec. 2023) = 129.4194.

Alcoa Annual Data

Free Cash Flow per Share CPI Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare
201412 2.182 99.070 2.850
201512 2.654 99.792 3.442
201612 -3.907 101.863 -4.964
201712 4.380 104.011 5.450
201812 0.259 105.998 0.316
201912 1.659 108.420 1.980
202012 0.220 109.897 0.259
202112 2.789 117.630 3.069
202212 1.890 125.222 1.953
202312 -2.472 129.419 -2.472

Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share together and divide 10 will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.


Alcoa  (NYSE:AA) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Explanation

If a company grows much fast than inflation, Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share may underestimate the company's free cash flow. Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF can seem to be too high even the actual Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow is low.

For the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, the free cash flow per share of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/FCF calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF is also called CAPFCF Ratio.

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller. He uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings per share of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted free cash flow per share of a company over the past 10 years.

Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is calculated as

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF=Share Price/Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
=36.88/1.19
=30.99

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

During the past 11 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Alcoa was 42.38. The lowest was 22.29. And the median was 28.39.


Be Aware

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF works better for cyclical companies. It gives you a better idea on the company's real free cash flow value.


Alcoa Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Alcoa (AA) Business Description

Industry
Address
201 Isabella Street, Suite 500, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, 15212-5858
Alcoa Corp is a vertically integrated aluminum company whose operations include bauxite mining, alumina refining, and the manufacture of primary aluminum. It is the world's largest bauxite miner and alumina refiner by production volume, and its profits are closely tied to prevailing commodity prices along the aluminum supply chain. The company segments include Bauxite; Alumina and Aluminum. It generates maximum revenue from the Aluminum segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States.
Executives
Renee Henry officer: SVP & Controller 201 ISABELLA STREET, STE 500, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Nicol Gagstetter officer: EVP & Chief Ext. Aff. Officer 201 ISABELLA STREET, SUITE 500, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Andrew Hastings officer: EVP & Gen. Counsel 201 ISABELLA STREET, SUITE 500, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
De Oliveira Marques Roberto director C/O MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL, INC., THREE PARKWAY NORTH, DEERFIELD IL 60048
Roy Christopher Harvey director, officer: President, CEO & Director 201 ISABELLA STREET, SUITE 500, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Renato Bacchi officer: EVP & Chief Strategy Officer 201 ISABELLA STREET, SUITE 500, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Harden Sonya Elam officer: EVP & Chief Ext. Aff. Officer 201 ISABELLA STREET, SUITE 500, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
William F Oplinger officer: Executive VP & CFO 201 ISABELLA STREET, SUITE 500, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Jeffrey D. Heeter officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary C/O ALCOA CORPORATION, 201 ISABELLA STREET, SUITE 500, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Tammi A Jones officer: EVP & CHRO 201 ISABELLA STREET, SUITE 500, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Jackson Prince Roberts director 201 ISABELLA STREET, SUITE 500, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
John D Slaven officer: EVP & Chief Strategy Officer 201 ISABELLA STREET, SUITE 500, PITTSBURGH PA 15212-5858
Kelly R. Thomas officer: EVP & Chief Commercial Officer 25825 SCIENCE PARK DRIVE, SUITE 400, BEACHWOOD OH 44122
Molly S. Beerman officer: Vice President and Controller 201 ISABELLA STREET, SUITE 500, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Benjamin D Kahrs officer: EVP, Chief Innovation Officer 201 ISABELLA STREET, SUITE 500, PITTSBURGH PA 15212