Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
Books-A-Million's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.
The historical rank and industry rank for Books-A-Million's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:
BAMM's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is not ranked *
in the Retail - Cyclical industry.
Industry Median: 0.78 * Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) only.
Books-A-Million Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data
The historical data trend for Books-A-Million's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Competitive Comparison of Books-A-Million's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
For the Specialty Retail subindustry, Books-A-Million's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Books-A-Million's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution in the Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Books-A-Million's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Books-A-Million's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.
Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11% A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
Books-A-Million's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past
3 years was 0.00%,
which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $0.090. GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
Books-A-Million's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.
Be Aware
What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:
1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.
You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.
Books-A-Million Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Books-A-Million's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Books-A-Million (Books-A-Million) Business Description
Books-A-Million Inc was founded in 1917, originally incorporated under the laws of the State of Alabama in 1964 and reincorporated in Delaware in September 1992. The Company is a book retailer located in the eastern United States and operates both superstores and traditional bookstores. The Company operates both superstores and traditional bookstores. The first Superstore was opened in 1987 and operates under the names Books-A-Million and Books and Co. and 2nd & Charles. Traditional bookstores are smaller stores operated under the names Bookland, Books-A-Million and BAM. All store formats generally offer a selection of sellers and other hardcover and paperback books, magazines, toys, games, electronics and gifts. In addition to these retail store formats, it offers its products over the internet at Booksamillion.com. Its retail operations also include the operation of Yogurt Mountain Holding, LLC, a retailer and franchisor of self-serve frozen yogurt stores. It also develops and manages commercial real estate investments through its subsidiary, Preferred Growth Properties, LLC. The Company operates in three reportable operating segments: Retail trade; Electronic commerce trade; and Real estate development and management. In the retail trade segment, it is engaged in the retail sale of books, magazines and general merchandise, including gifts, cards, games, toys, collectibles, music, DVDs, electronic devices and accessories in its retail stores. In the electronic commerce trade segment, it is engaged in the retail sale of books and general merchandise over the internet. The real estate development and management segment is managed separately from the retail trade and electronic commerce trade segments, with a focus on deriving revenues through developing and leasing commercial retail real estate for purposes of earning rental income. The Company promotes its bookstores through the use of traditional direct mail, e-mail and online advertising, as well as point-of-sale materials posted and distributed in its stores. The retail book business is competitive. The Company faces direct competition from other superstores, such as Barnes & Noble, and it also faces competition from mass merchandisers, such as Wal-Mart and Costco, and online retailers, such as Amazon.com, Barnes & Noble and Wal-Mart. Its bookstores also compete with specialty retail stores that offer books in particular subject areas, independent single store operators, variety discounters, drugstores, warehouse clubs, mail order clubs and other retailers offering books. In addition, its bookstores face additional competition from the market for electronic books and may face competition from other categories of retailers entering the retail book market. The Company is subject to general business regulations and laws, as well as regulations and laws specifically governing the Internet and e-commerce.
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