AmTrust Financial Services (AmTrust Financial Services) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $2.84 (As of Apr. 27, 2024)

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What is AmTrust Financial Services Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-04-27), AmTrust Financial Services's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $2.84.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

AmTrust Financial Services's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for AmTrust Financial Services is -419.37%.

The industry rank for AmTrust Financial Services's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

AFSI's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Insurance industry.
Industry Median: 0.69
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

AmTrust Financial Services Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for AmTrust Financial Services's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

AmTrust Financial Services Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

AmTrust Financial Services Annual Data

Trend

Dec08

Dec09

Dec10

Dec11

Dec12

Dec13

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

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63.97

115.89

144.56

128.76

AmTrust Financial Services Quarterly Data
	Dec13	Mar14	Jun14	Sep14	Dec14	Mar15	Jun15	Sep15	Dec15	Mar16	Jun16	Sep16	Dec16	Mar17	Jun17	Sep17	Dec17	Mar18	Jun18	Sep18
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-34.22	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison of AmTrust Financial Services's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Insurance - Property & Casualty subindustry, AmTrust Financial Services's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

AmTrust Financial Services's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Insurance Industry

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, AmTrust Financial Services's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where AmTrust Financial Services's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.

AmTrust Financial Services Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> AmTrust Financial Services's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $0.246.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

AmTrust Financial Services's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

0.246

11.5406

2.84

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(2.84	-	14.75)	/	2.84
	=	-419.37 %

AmTrust Financial Services (NAS:AFSI) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

AmTrust Financial Services Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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AmTrust Financial Services (AmTrust Financial Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » AmTrust Financial Services Inc (NAS:AFSI) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AFSIN.PFD:USA AFSIM.PFD:USA AFSIP.PFD:USA AFSIC.PFD:USA AFSIB.PFD:USA AFSIA.PFD:USA

Address

59 Maiden Lane, 43rd Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10038

Website

https://www.amtrustfinancial.com

AmTrust Financial Services Inc is a multinational company that underwrites and provides property and casualty insurance products. The company specializes in coverage for small to mid-sized businesses, with a philosophical focus on niche diversity and low-hazard risk. AmTrust's business model strives to achieve its profit goals through geographic and product diversification. The company reports three business segments: Small Commercial Business, Specialty Risk and Extended Warranty, and Specialty Program. The vast majority of revenues is derived from its Small Commercial Business risk.

Executives

Chris C Stroup	director	C/O AMTRUST FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC., 59 MAIDEN LANE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038
Shettle John F Jr	director	C/O AMTRUST FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC., 59 MAIDEN LANE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038
Peter Dewey	officer: Head of International	C/O AMTRUST FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC., 59 MAIDEN LANE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038
Christopher Foy	officer: Head of N. American Commercial	C/O AMTRUST FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC., 59 MAIDEN LANE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038
Barry D Zyskind	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	C/O AMTRUST FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC., 59 MAIDEN LANE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038
Ariel Gorelik	officer: SVP, Chief Information Officer	C/O AMTRUST FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC., 59 MAIDEN LANE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038
Raul Rivera	director	C/O AMTRUST FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC., 59 MAIDEN LANE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038
Adam Karkowsky	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O AMTRUST FINANCIAL SERVICES INC., 59 MAIDEN LANE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038
Stephen Ungar	officer: SVP, GC and Secretary	C/O AMTRUST FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC., 59 MAIDEN LANE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038
Susan Fisch	director	C/O AMTRUST FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC., 59 MAIDEN LANE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038
David Saks	officer: EVP, Chief Legal Officer	59 MAIDEN LANE, NEW YORK NY 10038
Christopher Longo	officer: EVP, Chief Operating Officer	59 MAIDEN LANE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038
Abraham Gulkowitz	director	C/O AMTRUST FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC., 59 MAIDEN LANE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038
Michael J Saxon	officer: EVP - U.S. Commercial Lines	C/O AMTRUST FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC., 59 MAIDEN LANE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038
Leah Karfunkel	director, 10 percent owner	C/O AMTRUST FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC., 59 MAIDEN LANE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038