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Ensign Group (Ensign Group) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $72.62 (As of Apr. 27, 2024)


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What is Ensign Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-04-27), Ensign Group's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $72.62.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Ensign Group's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Ensign Group is -61.46%.

The industry rank for Ensign Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

ENSG's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the Healthcare Providers & Services industry.
Industry Median: 0.995
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Ensign Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Ensign Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Ensign Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Ensign Group Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 90.64 - - - -

Ensign Group Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Ensign Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Medical Care Facilities subindustry, Ensign Group's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Ensign Group's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Healthcare Providers & Services Industry

For the Healthcare Providers & Services industry and Healthcare sector, Ensign Group's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Ensign Group's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.



Ensign Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 9.40%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Ensign Group's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 5 years was 9.40%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 9.40%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $4.718.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Ensign Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.094)/(1+0.11) = 0.98558558558559
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=4.718*15.3912
=72.62

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(72.62-117.25)/72.62
=-61.46 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Ensign Group  (NAS:ENSG) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Ensign Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Ensign Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Ensign Group (Ensign Group) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
29222 Rancho Viejo Road, Suite 127, San Juan Capistrano, CA, USA, 92675
Ensign Group Inc provides post-acute healthcare services in the United States. Its regional subsidiaries oversee skilled nursing, assisted living, home health and hospice, mobile ancillary, and urgent care operations. Medicare and Medicaid programs contribute a majority of revenue received for Ensign's services. The firm operates through two segments, Skilled services, and Standard Bearer. The skilled services segment includes the operation of skilled nursing facilities and rehabilitation therapy services. The real estate segment comprises of properties owned by the company and leased to skilled nursing and assisted living operations. The majority of the revenue is generated from the services segment.
Executives
Daren Shaw director 27101 PUERTA REAL, SUITE 450, MISSION VIEJO CA 92691
Spencer Burton officer: President and COO 29222 RANCHO VIEJO ROAD, SUITE 127, SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO CA 92675
Ann Scott Blouin director 27101 PUERTA REAL, SUITE 450, MISSION VIEJO CA 92691
Chad Keetch officer: Executive Vice President 27101 PUERTA REAL, SUITE 450, MISSION VIEJO CA 92691
Christopher R. Christensen director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & CEO 27101 PUERTA REAL, SUITE 450, MISSION VIEJO CA 92691
Suzanne D. Snapper officer: CFO 27101 PUERTA REAL, STE 450, MISSION VIEJO CA 92691
John O Agwunobi director 4800 NORTH SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251
Lee A Daniels director 5152 N. EDGEWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 375, PROVO UT 84604
Beverly B. Wittekind officer: VP & General Counsel 27101 PUERTA REAL, STE 450, MISSION VIEJO CA 92691
Barry Port officer: President of a subsidiary 27101 PUERTA REAL, SUITE 450, MISSION VIEJO CA 92691
John G. Nackel director 27101 PUERTA REAL, SUITE 450, MISSION VIEJO CA 92691
Swati Bargotra Abbott director 4800 NORTH SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 4400, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251
Antoinette T. Hubenette director 27101 PUERTA REAL, SUITE 450, MISSION VIEJO CA 92691
Malene Davis director 50 F. STREET, NW, SUITE 3300, WASHINGTON DC 92691
Roy E Christensen director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of the Board 27101 PUERTA REAL, SUITE 450, MISSION VIEJO CA 92691