Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd (Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $8.83 (As of Apr. 29, 2024)

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What is Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-04-29), Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $8.83.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd is 20.72%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

MSD's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Asset Management industry.
Industry Median: 0.845
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd Annual Data

Trend

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

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Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd Semi-Annual Data
	Dec17	Jun18	Dec18	Jun19	Dec19	Jun20	Dec20	Jun21	Dec21	Jun22	Dec22	Jun23	Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial								-	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison of Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Asset Management subindustry, Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Asset Management Industry

For the Asset Management industry and Financial Services sector, Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.

Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.63%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 5 years was 4.40%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $0.765.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	=	Dividends per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Dividends per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

0.765

11.5406

8.83

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(8.83	-	7.00)	/	8.83
	=	20.72 %

Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd (NYSE:MSD) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd (Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd Inc (NYSE:MSD) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

522 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10036

Website

https://www.morganstanley.com

Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd Inc is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. The Fund's primary investment objective is to produce high current income and as a secondary objective to seek capital appreciation, through investments mainly in debt securities of government and government-related issuers located in emerging countries, of entities organized to restructure the outstanding debt of such issuers and debt securities of corporate issuers in or organized under the laws of emerging countries.

Executives

Michael J Key	officer: Vice President	1633 BROADWAY, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Kyle Lee	officer: Portfolio Manager	1633 BROADWAY, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Federico C Sequeda	officer: Portfolio Manager	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Ali Akbar Causer	officer: Portfolio Manager	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Eddie Arthur Grier	other: Advisory Board Member	11700 PLAZA AMERICA DRIVE, SUITE 500, RESTON VA 20190
Frances Cashman	other: Advisory Board Member	MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 1633 BROADWAY 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Deidre Downes	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	1633 BROADWAY, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Patricia A Maleski	director	C/O J P MORGAN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC, 522 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10036
Timothy J Knierim	officer: CCO	100 MULBERRY STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Sahil Tandon	officer: Portfolio Manager	522 5TH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jakki L. Haussler	director	221 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Nancy Everett	director	1812 PARK AVE, RICHMOND VA 23220
Nystedt Bo Jens Andreas	other: Portfolio Manager	522 5TH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10036
Warren John Mar	other: Portfolio Manager	522 5TH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10036
Joseph C Benedetti	officer: Vice President	C/O INVESCO, 225 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10281