Conagra Brands (Conagra Brands) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $26.17 (As of May. 15, 2024)

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What is Conagra Brands Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-05-15), Conagra Brands's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $26.17.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Conagra Brands's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Conagra Brands is -18.46%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Conagra Brands's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Conagra Brands was 1.31. The lowest was 1.11. And the median was 1.17.

CAG's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry.
Industry Median: 1.005
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Conagra Brands Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Conagra Brands's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Conagra Brands Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Conagra Brands Annual Data

Trend

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Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

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Conagra Brands Quarterly Data
	May19	Aug19	Nov19	Feb20	May20	Aug20	Nov20	Feb21	May21	Aug21	Nov21	Feb22	May22	Aug22	Nov22	Feb23	May23	Aug23	Nov23	Feb24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison of Conagra Brands's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Packaged Foods subindustry, Conagra Brands's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Conagra Brands's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Consumer Packaged Goods Industry

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Conagra Brands's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Conagra Brands's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.

Conagra Brands Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.42%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Conagra Brands's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 1.90%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $2.268.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Conagra Brands's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	=	Dividends per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Dividends per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

2.268

11.5406

26.17

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(26.17	-	31.00)	/	26.17
	=	-18.46 %

Conagra Brands (NYSE:CAG) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Conagra Brands Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Conagra Brands's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Conagra Brands (Conagra Brands) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Conagra Brands Inc (NYSE:CAG) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CAO:Germany CAO:Germany

Address

222 W. Merchandise Mart Plaza, Suite 1300, Chicago, IL, USA, 60654

Website

https://www.conagrabrands.com

Conagra Brands is a packaged food company that operates predominantly in the United States (over 90% of revenue and profits). Most of its revenue comes from frozen food, including brands like Marie Callender's, Healthy Choice, Banquet, and Birds Eye. Conagra also sells snacks, shelf-stable staples, and refrigerated food through brands like Duncan Hines, Hunt's, Slim Jim, Vlasic, Orville Redenbacher's, Reddi-wip, Wish-Bone, and Chef Boyardee. The company primarily sells through the U.S. retail channel, with just 8% of fiscal 2023 revenue coming from international markets and 9% from foodservice.

Executives

Richard H Lenny	director	ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INC., 155 HARLEM AVE., GLENVIEW IL 60025
Francisco Fraga	director	222 MERCHANDISE MART PLAZA, SUITE 1300, CHICAGO IL 60654
Thomas M Mcgough	officer: EVP and Co-COO	C/O CONAGRA FOODS, INC., ONE CONAGRA DRIVE, MS 1-330, OMAHA NE 68102
William Eric Johnson	officer: SVP, Corporate Controller	222 MERCHANDISE MART PLAZA, SUITE 1300, CHICAGO IL 60654
Charisse Brock	officer: EVP, Chief HR Officer	C/CONAGRA FOODS, INC., ONE CONAGRA DRIVE, MS1-330, OMAHA NE 68102
Robert G Wise	officer: SVP, Corporate Controller	C/O CONAGRA FOODS, INC., ONE CONAGRA DRIVE, OMAHA NE 68102
Carey Bartell	officer: EVP, GC and Corp. Secretary	C/O CONAGRA BRANDS, INC., 222 W. MERCHANDISE MART PLAZA, STE. 1300, CHICAGO IL 60654
Denise Paulonis	director	8000 BENT BRANCH DRIVE, IRVING TX 75063
Emanuel Chirico	director	7 NEW YORK PLACE, BRONSVILLE NY 10708
Batcheler Colleen	officer: SVP and General Counsel	ONE CONAGRA DRIVE, OMAHA NE 68102
Darren Serrao	officer: EVP and Co-COO	C/CONAGRA FOODS, INC., ONE CONAGRA DRIVE, MS1-330, OMAHA NE 68102
George Dowdie	director	C/O CONAGRA BRANDS, INC., 222 W. MERCHANDISE MART PLAZA, STE 1300, CHICAGO IL 60654
Fran Horowitz-bonadies	director	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Alexandre Eboli	officer: EVP,Chief Supply Chain Officer	C/O CONAGRA BRANDS, INC., 222 W. MERCHANDISE MART PLAZA, STE. 1300, CHICAGO IL 60654
Jana Partners Llc	director, other: See Remarks	767 FIFTH AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10153