Graphic Packaging Holding Co (Graphic Packaging Holding Co) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $29.67 (As of Apr. 27, 2024)

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What is Graphic Packaging Holding Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-04-27), Graphic Packaging Holding Co's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $29.67.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Graphic Packaging Holding Co's Predictability Rank is 4.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Graphic Packaging Holding Co is 7.21%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Graphic Packaging Holding Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

GPK' s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.77 Med: 1.05 Max: 1.39
Current: 0.93

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Graphic Packaging Holding Co was 1.39. The lowest was 0.77. And the median was 1.05.

GPK's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is ranked better than
55.17% of 58 companies
in the Packaging & Containers industry
Industry Median: 0.96 vs GPK: 0.93

Graphic Packaging Holding Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Graphic Packaging Holding Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Graphic Packaging Holding Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Graphic Packaging Holding Co Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

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14.97

14.05

22.86

32.10

Graphic Packaging Holding Co Quarterly Data
	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															22.86	26.48	29.21	28.01	32.10

Competitive Comparison of Graphic Packaging Holding Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Packaging & Containers subindustry, Graphic Packaging Holding Co's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Graphic Packaging Holding Co's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Packaging & Containers Industry

For the Packaging & Containers industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Graphic Packaging Holding Co's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Graphic Packaging Holding Co's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.

Graphic Packaging Holding Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Graphic Packaging Holding Co's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 5 years was 4.90%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $2.5713.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Graphic Packaging Holding Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	=	Dividends per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Dividends per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

2.5713

11.5406

29.67

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(29.67	-	27.53)	/	29.67
	=	7.21 %

Graphic Packaging Holding Co (NYSE:GPK) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Graphic Packaging Holding Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Graphic Packaging Holding Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Graphic Packaging Holding Co (Graphic Packaging Holding Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Packaging & Containers » Graphic Packaging Holding Co (NYSE:GPK) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

4W8:Germany 4W8:Germany

Address

1500 Riveredge Parkway, Suite 100, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30328

Website

https://www.graphicpkg.com

Graphic Packaging Holding Co is a holding company that manufactures and sells a variety of paper-based consumer packaging products through its subsidiaries. The company's two primary functions include the sale of paperboard packaging and the operation of paperboard mills. The paperboard packaging business includes packaging for beverages, including beer and soft drinks as well as food, including cereal, frozen foods, and pet foods. The firm also sells paperboard packaging for household products, including dishwasher and laundry detergent and personal care products. Graphic Packaging operates papermills that sell laminated and coated packaging products to third parties. The majority of revenue comes from the Americas.

Executives

Stephen R. Scherger	officer: SVP, Consumer Packaging Div.	3901 SULGRAVE ROAD, RICHMOND VA 23221
Lynn A Wentworth	director	CINCINNATI BELL INC, P O BOX 2301, CINCINNATI OH 45201
Michael James Farrell	officer: EVP, Mills Division	1500 RIVEREDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 100, ATLANTA GA 30328
Jean Francois Roche	officer: SVP and President, EMEA	1500 RIVEREDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 100, AT GA 30328
Elizabeth Spence	officer: EVP, Human Resources	1500 RIVEREDGE PARKWAY, N.W., SUITE 100, ATLANTA GA 30328
Aziz Aghili	director	5706 KIRKRIDGE TRAIL, ROCHESTER HILLS MI 48306
Margie Kay Bidlingmaier	officer: EVP, President, Americas Busi	1500 RIVEREDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 100, ATLANTA GA 30328
Mary K Rhinehart	director	821 17TH STREET, DENVER CO 80202
Joseph P Yost	officer: SVP, Supply Chain	814 LIVINGSTON COURT, MARIETTA GA 30067
Larry M Venturelli	director	2000 M-63N, BENTON HARBOR MI 49022
Charles D Lischer	officer: SVP & CAO	2500 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 700, ATLANTA GA 30339
Stacey J. Panayiotou	officer: EVP, Human Resources	9200 W. 108TH CIRCLE, WESTMINSTER CO 80021
Robert Hagemann	director	3 GIRALDA FARMS, MADISON NJ 07940
Laurie Brlas	director	C/O ALBEMARLE CORPORATION, 4250 CONGRESS ST STE 900, CHARLOTTE NC 28209
Dean A Scarborough	director	150 N. ORANGE GROVE BLVD, PASADENA CA 91103