National Bank Holdings (National Bank Holdings) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $97.88 (As of Apr. 27, 2024)

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What is National Bank Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-04-27), National Bank Holdings's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $97.88.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

National Bank Holdings's Predictability Rank is 2.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for National Bank Holdings is 65.77%.

The historical rank and industry rank for National Bank Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

NBHC' s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.27 Med: 0.3 Max: 0.32
Current: 0.32

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of National Bank Holdings was 0.32. The lowest was 0.27. And the median was 0.30.

NBHC's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is ranked better than
87.55% of 546 companies
in the Banks industry
Industry Median: 0.66 vs NBHC: 0.32

National Bank Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for National Bank Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

National Bank Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

National Bank Holdings Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

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122.36

115.20

National Bank Holdings Quarterly Data
	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23	Mar24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-	-	-	115.20	-

Competitive Comparison of National Bank Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, National Bank Holdings's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

National Bank Holdings's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, National Bank Holdings's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where National Bank Holdings's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.

National Bank Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> National Bank Holdings's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 22.40%, which is no less than 20%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $3.132.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

National Bank Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	=	Dividends per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.11) = 1.0810810810811
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Dividends per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

3.132

31.2501

97.88

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(97.88	-	33.50)	/	97.88
	=	65.77 %

National Bank Holdings (NYSE:NBHC) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

National Bank Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of National Bank Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

National Bank Holdings (National Bank Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » National Bank Holdings Corp (NYSE:NBHC) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

7800 East Orchard Road, Suite 300, Greenwood Village, CO, USA, 80111

Website

https://www.nationalbankholdings.com

National Bank Holdings Corp is a bank holding company. It provides various banking products and financial services to commercial, business, and consumer clients in the United States. The company offers deposit products including checking accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts, and other deposit accounts, including fixed-rate and fixed-maturity time deposits. It also provides commercial and industrial loans and leases. In addition, it offers treasury management solutions comprising online and mobile banking, commercial credit card, wire transfer, automated clearing house, and electronic bill payments.

Executives

Christopher S. Randall	officer: EVP, Comm. & Specialty Banking	7800 EAST ORCHARD ROAD, SUITE 300, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
G. Timothy Laney	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	5570 DTC PARKWAY, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Robert E Dean	director	5570 DTC PARKWAY, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Brendan W Zahl	officer: EVP NBH Residential Banking	7800 EAST ORCHARD ROAD, SUITE 300, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Newfield Richard U Jr.	officer: Chief Risk Mngmt Officer	5570 DTC PARKWAY, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Alka Gupta	director	2828 N. HARWOOD STREET, 15TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75201
Warren Burney S. Iii	director	5570 DTC PARKWAY, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Maria F Spring	director	5570 DTC PARKWAY, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Angela Nicole Petrucci	officer: Chief Admin Officer	NATIONAL BANK HOLDINGS CORPORATION, 7800 EAST ORCHARD ROAD, SUITE 300, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Whitney A. Bartelli	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	7800 EAST ORCHARD ROAD, SUITE 300, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Patrick G. Sobers	officer: EVP, Consumer & Smll Bus. Bnkg	7800 EAST ORCHARD ROAD, SUITE 300, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Ruth Stevenson	officer: Chief Client Executive	7800 EAST ORCHARD ROAD, SUITE 300, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Zsolt K Bessko	officer: Chief Admin Officer	1331 SEVENTEENTH STREET, STE. 300, DENVER CO 80202
Aldis Birkans	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5570 DTC PARKWAY, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Denabeele Nicole Van	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	7800 EAST ORCHARD ROAD, SUITE 300, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111