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Rockwell Automation (Rockwell Automation) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $156.81 (As of Apr. 27, 2024)


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What is Rockwell Automation Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-04-27), Rockwell Automation's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $156.81.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Rockwell Automation's Predictability Rank is 3-Stars.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Rockwell Automation is -78.64%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Rockwell Automation's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

ROK' s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.64   Med: 1.13   Max: 1.84
Current: 1.79

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Rockwell Automation was 1.84. The lowest was 0.64. And the median was 1.13.

ROK's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is ranked worse than
70.1% of 408 companies
in the Industrial Products industry
Industry Median: 1.115 vs ROK: 1.79

Rockwell Automation Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Rockwell Automation's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Rockwell Automation Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Rockwell Automation Annual Data
Trend Sep14 Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20 Sep21 Sep22 Sep23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 205.25 194.51 194.25 149.12 162.44

Rockwell Automation Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 154.15 175.34 180.83 162.44 170.54

Competitive Comparison of Rockwell Automation's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Specialty Industrial Machinery subindustry, Rockwell Automation's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Rockwell Automation's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Industrial Products Industry

For the Industrial Products industry and Industrials sector, Rockwell Automation's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Rockwell Automation's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Rockwell Automation Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 8.90%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Rockwell Automation's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 8.90%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 8.90%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $10.53.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Rockwell Automation's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.089)/(1+0.11) = 0.98108108108108
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Dividends per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=10.53*14.8916
=156.81

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= (156.81 - 280.12) / 156.81
= -78.64 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Rockwell Automation  (NYSE:ROK) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Rockwell Automation Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Rockwell Automation's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Rockwell Automation (Rockwell Automation) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1201 South Second Street, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53204
Rockwell Automation is a pure-play automation competitor that is the successor entity to Rockwell International, which spun off its former Rockwell Collins avionics segment in 2001. As of fiscal 2021, the firm operates through three segments--intelligent devices, software and control, and lifecycle services. Intelligent devices contains its drives, sensors, and industrial components, software and control contains its information and network and security software, while lifecycle services contains its consulting and maintenance services as well as its Sensia JV with SLB.
Executives
Matthew W. Fordenwalt officer: SVP Lifecycle Services 1201 S. 2ND STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53204
Christopher Nardecchia officer: SVP, Chief Information Officer 1201 S. 2ND STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53204
Rebecca W House officer: SVP, CLO and Secretary 1201 SOUTH SECOND STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53204
Frank C Kulaszewicz officer: SVP C/O ROCKWELL AUTOMATION, INC., 1201 SOUTH SECOND STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53204
Blake D. Moret director, officer: President and CEO C/O ROCKWELL AUTOMATION, INC., 1201 SOUTH SECOND STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53204
John M Miller officer: VP and Chief IP Counsel C/O ROCKWELL AUTOMATION, INC., 1201 SOUTH SECOND STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53204
Terry L. Riesterer officer: Vice President and Controller 1201 S. 2ND STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53204
Nicholas C Gangestad officer: Sr. VP and CFO 3M CENTER-OFFICE OF GENERAL COUNSEL, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Veena M Lakkundi officer: SVP, Strategy & Corp Developmt 3M COMPANY, 3M CENTER, BLDG 220 09 E-02, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Isaac Woods officer: Vice President and Treasurer 1201 S 2ND STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53204
Scott Genereux officer: Sr.VP, Chief Revenue Officer 26650 ALISO VIEJO PARKWAY, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Brian A Shepherd officer: Sr. VP Software and Control 1201 S 2ND STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53204
Robert L. Buttermore officer: SVP,Chief Supply Chain Officer 1201 S. 2ND STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53204
Cyril Perducat officer: SVP, Technology 1201 S. 2ND STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53204
Tessa M. Myers officer: SVP, Intelligent Devices 4545 W BROWN DEER ROAD, P.O. BOX 245036, MILWAUKEE WI 53224