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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : $27.37 (As of Apr. 27, 2024)


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What is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-04-27), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $27.37. The stock price of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is $10.80. Therefore, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.4.

The historical rank and industry rank for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

ARI' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.39   Med: 0.64   Max: 0.87
Current: 0.39

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance was 0.87. The lowest was 0.39. And the median was 0.64.

ARI's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than
81.24% of 549 companies
in the REITs industry
Industry Median: 0.66 vs ARI: 0.39

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 23.47 24.91 22.81 25.41 27.37

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 25.41 25.68 27.59 27.79 27.37

Competitive Comparison of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the REIT - Mortgage subindustry, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the REITs Industry

For the REITs industry and Real Estate sector, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $220.82.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(9.5203515959648*220.82096+2208.733*0.8)/141.358
=27.37

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance  (NYSE:ARI) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=10.80/27.372200929261
=0.39

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
c/o Apollo Global Management, Inc, 9 West 57th Street, 42nd Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10019
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc is a real estate investment trust that primarily originates, invests in, acquires, and manages commercial first-mortgage loans, subordinate financings, commercial mortgage-backed securities, and other real estate-related debt investments. The subordinate loans and first-mortgage loans account for the vast majority of the portfolio on a cost basis. Property types include residential, retail, healthcare, office, mixed-use, hotel, industrial, multifamily, securities, and other, with residential properties and hotels representing the highest property value. More than a third of the properties are located in New York City, with the other properties located across other regions of the United States, as well as other countries.
Executives
Stuart Rothstein officer: CFO, Treasurer and Secretary 2180 SAND HILL RD, STE 200, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Mark C Biderman director NATIONAL FINANCIAL PARTNERS CORP, 340 MADISON AVENUE, 19TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10173
Pamela G Carlton director 901 S. MARQUETTE AVENUE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Robert A Kasdin director 239 CENTRAL PARK WEST, APT 3A, NEW YORK NY 10024
Anastasia G. Mironova officer: CFO, Secretary & Treasurer 9 WEST 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Whonder Carmencita N.m. director 9 WEST 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Eric Press director 1301 AVENUE OF THE AMERICA 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Jai Agarwal officer: CFO, Treasurer and Secretary 601 LEXINGTON AVE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Katherine G. Newman director C/O APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Michael Salvati director
Brenna Haysom Romando director 36 BLOOMS CORNERS ROAD, WARWICK NY 10990
Jeffrey M Gault director MORGANS HOTEL GROUP CO., 475 TENTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10018
Scott Prince director 9 W 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Investment Authority Qatar 10 percent owner P.O. BOX 23224, DOHA S3 QATAR
Cindy Z Michel director C/O APOLLO INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 9 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019