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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2024-05-13), Aspen Technology's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $212.56. The stock price of Aspen Technology is $209.08. Therefore, Aspen Technology's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 1.0.
The historical rank and industry rank for Aspen Technology's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Aspen Technology was 4.36. The lowest was 0.56. And the median was 2.16.
The historical data trend for Aspen Technology's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Aspen Technology Annual Data | |||||||||||||||||||||
Trend | Jun14 | Jun15 | Jun16 | Jun17 | Jun18 | Jun19 | Jun20 | Jun21 | Jun22 | Jun23 | |||||||||||
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | 44.51 | 49.23 | 55.74 | 325.32 | 211.06 |
Aspen Technology Quarterly Data | ||||||||||||||||||||
Jun19 | Sep19 | Dec19 | Mar20 | Jun20 | Sep20 | Dec20 | Mar21 | Jun21 | Sep21 | Dec21 | Mar22 | Jun22 | Sep22 | Dec22 | Mar23 | Jun23 | Sep23 | Dec23 | Mar24 | |
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | 207.72 | 211.06 | 208.16 | 209.85 | 212.56 |
For the Software - Application subindustry, Aspen Technology's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Software industry and Technology sector, Aspen Technology's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Aspen Technology's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Aspen Technology's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $222.93.
Aspen Technology's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF | = | (Growth Multiple | * | Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) | + | Total Stockholders Equity (Mar24) | * | 0.8) | / | Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) |
= | (14.862653310476 | * | 222.93456 | + | 12810.822 | * | 0.8) | / | 63.802 | |
= | 212.56 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Aspen Technology (NAS:AZPN) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Aspen Technology's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF | = | Share Price | / | Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF |
= | 209.08 | / | 212.56475778508 | |
= | 0.98 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Aspen Technology's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Whelan, Jr. Robert M. | director | ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 26 LANDSDOWNE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
Mark Edgar Mouritsen | officer: Senior VP & General Counsel | C/O ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC., 20 CROSBY DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730 |
F G Hammond | officer: Senior VP & General Counsel | C/O ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC., 10 CANAL PARK, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141 |
Antonio J Pietri | director, officer: President & CEO | C/O ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC., 20 CROSBY DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730 |
Robert E Beauchamp | director | 2101 CITYWEST BLVD, HOUSTON TX 77042-2827 |
Chantelle Yvette Breithaupt | officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer | C/O ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC. 20 CROSBY DR., BEDFORD MA 01730 |
Arlen Shenkman | director | C/O CITRIX SYSTEMS, INC., 851 WEST CYRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309 |
Thomas F Bogan | director | C/O WORKDAY, INC., 6110 STONERIDGE MALL RD, PLEASANTON CA 94588 |
Patrick M. Antkowiak | director | 4 PATRICK WAY, KINGSVILLE MD 21087 |
Christopher Stagno | officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | C/O BRIGHTCOVE INC., 290 CONGRESS STREET, BOSTON MA 02110 |
Manish Chawla | officer: Chief Revenue Officer | C/O ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC., 20 CROSBY DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730 |
Jill D. Smith | director | 1601 DRY CREEK DRIVE, SUITE 260, LONGMONT CO 80503 |
Karen Golz | director | ONE TECHNOLOGY WAY, NORWOOD MA 02062 |
Ram R. Krishnan | director | C/O EMERSON ELECTRIC CO., 8000 W. FLORISSANT AVENUE, ST. LOUIS MO 63136 |
Emerson Electric Co | director, 10 percent owner | 8000 W. FLORISSANT, P.O. BOX 4100, ST LOUIS MO 63136 |
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