Tsingtao Brewery Co (Tsingtao Brewery Co) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : $2.77 (As of Apr. 26, 2024)

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What is Tsingtao Brewery Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-04-26), Tsingtao Brewery Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $2.77. The stock price of Tsingtao Brewery Co is $6.50. Therefore, Tsingtao Brewery Co's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 2.4.

The historical rank and industry rank for Tsingtao Brewery Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

TSGTF' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.86 Med: 2.37 Max: 3.96
Current: 2.35

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Tsingtao Brewery Co was 3.96. The lowest was 1.86. And the median was 2.37.

TSGTF's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than
78.43% of 153 companies
in the Beverages - Alcoholic industry
Industry Median: 1.26 vs TSGTF: 2.35

Tsingtao Brewery Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Tsingtao Brewery Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Tsingtao Brewery Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

Tsingtao Brewery Co Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

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2.65

2.61

2.97

3.13

2.98

Tsingtao Brewery Co Quarterly Data
	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															3.13	3.45	3.40	3.56	2.98

Competitive Comparison of Tsingtao Brewery Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Beverages - Brewers subindustry, Tsingtao Brewery Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Tsingtao Brewery Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Beverages - Alcoholic Industry

For the Beverages - Alcoholic industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Tsingtao Brewery Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Tsingtao Brewery Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.

Tsingtao Brewery Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Tsingtao Brewery Co's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $385.34.

Tsingtao Brewery Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF	=	(Growth Multiple	*	Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)	+	Total Stockholders Equity (Dec23)	*	0.8)	/	Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
	=	(9.5203515959648	*	385.33696	+	3844.357	*	0.8)	/	1364.289
	=	4.94

Tsingtao Brewery Co (OTCPK:TSGTF) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Tsingtao Brewery Co's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF	=	Share Price	/	Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
	=	6.50	/	4.9432553821956
	=	1.31

Tsingtao Brewery Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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Tsingtao Brewery Co (Tsingtao Brewery Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Beverages - Alcoholic » Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd (OTCPK:TSGTF) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

Traded in Other Exchanges

TSGTY:USA 00168:Hong Kong TSI:Germany 600600:China

Address

No. 35, Donghai West Road, Tsingtao Beer Tower, Shandong Province, Qingdao, CHN, 266071

Website

https://www.tsingtao.com

With over 100 years of history, Tsingtao Brewery has become one of the leading brewers in China with its namesake Tsingtao brand. The company has a dominant position in its core market, Shandong province, which contributed over 60% of its revenue and net profit in 2022. Unlike other major brewers, Tsingtao Brewery's brand umbrellas consist entirely of domestic brands. The Tsingtao brand has a mid-range to high-end market positioning and contributed over half of its volume whereas the mass market Laoshan brand targets the mainstream segment, with a declining volume mix as the company sought to premiumize its portfolio in recent years.