GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » The Swatch Group AG (OTCPK:SWGAY) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

The Swatch Group AG (The Swatch Group AG) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : $15.84 (As of Apr. 27, 2024)


View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is The Swatch Group AG Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-04-27), The Swatch Group AG's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $15.84. The stock price of The Swatch Group AG is $10.64. Therefore, The Swatch Group AG's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.7.

The historical rank and industry rank for The Swatch Group AG's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

SWGAY' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.67   Med: 0.96   Max: 1.44
Current: 0.67

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of The Swatch Group AG was 1.44. The lowest was 0.67. And the median was 0.96.

SWGAY's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than
56.09% of 722 companies
in the Retail - Cyclical industry
Industry Median: 0.795 vs SWGAY: 0.67

The Swatch Group AG Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for The Swatch Group AG's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

The Swatch Group AG Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

The Swatch Group AG Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 15.50 16.36 16.87 16.26 17.08

The Swatch Group AG Semi-Annual Data
Jun14 Dec14 Jun15 Dec15 Jun16 Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 Jun18 Dec18 Jun19 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 16.87 - 16.26 - 17.08

Competitive Comparison of The Swatch Group AG's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Luxury Goods subindustry, The Swatch Group AG's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


The Swatch Group AG's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Retail - Cyclical Industry

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, The Swatch Group AG's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where The Swatch Group AG's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



The Swatch Group AG Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get The Swatch Group AG's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $569.45.

The Swatch Group AG's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(9.5203515959648*569.45428571429+14103.839*0.8)/5184.964
=3.22

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


The Swatch Group AG  (OTCPK:SWGAY) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

The Swatch Group AG's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=10.64/3.221714985452
=3.30

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


The Swatch Group AG Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of The Swatch Group AG's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


The Swatch Group AG (The Swatch Group AG) Business Description

Address
Seevorstadt 6, Bienne, CHE, 2501
Swatch Group's biggest brands are Omega (number-two Swiss watch brand by sales after Rolex), Longines (the largest premium watch brand and number four by sales globally), Breguet, Tissot (the leader in midrange Swiss watches), and Swatch. Swatch group employs over 31,000 people, half of them in Switzerland. We estimate that Swatch Group makes about 30% of its sales from Omega, 17% from ultraluxury brands, 20% from Longines, 10% from Tissot, and 6% from Swatch. We estimate Omega and Longines to be the group's most profitable brands.

The Swatch Group AG (The Swatch Group AG) Headlines

From GuruFocus

The Invesco European Fund Erases The Swatch Group From Its Portfolio

By Kyle Ferguson Kyle Ferguson 07-22-2016

Tom Russo's Firm Cuts Mastercard, Berkshire

By Tiziano Frateschi Tiziano Frateschi 08-31-2020

David Winters - Why Do You Like Swatch?

By Grass Hopper Grass Hopper 04-02-2014

David Winters' Wintergreen Fund's Top Five Stocks

By Monica Wolfe Monica Wolfe 09-01-2014

David Herro Comments on Swatch Group AG

By Vera Yuan Vera Yuan 07-09-2015

Swatch's Stock Has Bottomed Out

By Holmes Osborne, CFA Holmes Osborne, CFA 03-08-2017