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Ciech (WAR:CIE) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : zł94.59 (As of May. 01, 2024)


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What is Ciech Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-05-01), Ciech's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is zł94.59. The stock price of Ciech is zł53.00. Therefore, Ciech's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.6.

The historical rank and industry rank for Ciech's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

WAR:CIE' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.48   Med: 0.98   Max: 5.65
Current: 0.56

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Ciech was 5.65. The lowest was 0.48. And the median was 0.98.

WAR:CIE's Price-to-Projected-FCF is not ranked
in the Chemicals industry.
Industry Median: 1.25 vs WAR:CIE: 0.56

Ciech Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Ciech's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Ciech Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

Ciech Annual Data
Trend Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 48.54 51.93 49.97 83.01 86.29

Ciech Quarterly Data
Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 60.80 86.29 103.12 97.82 96.37

Competitive Comparison of Ciech's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Chemicals subindustry, Ciech's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Ciech's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Chemicals Industry

For the Chemicals industry and Basic Materials sector, Ciech's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Ciech's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



Ciech Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Ciech's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = zł73.64.

Ciech's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Sep23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(11.37706741589*73.6416+2541.945*0.8)/52.582
=54.61

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Ciech  (WAR:CIE) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Ciech's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=53.00/54.607687950515
=0.97

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Ciech Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Ciech's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Ciech (WAR:CIE) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
ul Wspolna Street 62, Warsaw, POL, 00-684
Ciech SA manufactures and sells soda ash, glass, and chemical-based products. The firm's four segments are based on product type and function. The Soda segment, which generates the majority of revenue, sells soda ash used in the production of glass, detergents, and chemicals. Agro Segment is a manufacturer of crop protection products used in agriculture. The resins segment produces epoxy resins and polyester resins. Foams Segment is a producer of polyurethane foams, mainly used in the furniture industry for upholstered furniture and mattresses. Silicates Segment manufactures sodium silicates and potassium silicates. The packaging segment manufactures glass packaging lanterns and jars, used in the food industry and for the production of headstone lamps.

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