Switch to:
Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL)
Beneish M-Score
-2.90 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Carnival Corp has a M-score of -2.90 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

CCL' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -3.24   Max: 13.7
Current: -2.9

-3.24
13.7

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Carnival Corp was 13.70. The lowest was -3.24. And the median was -2.52.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Carnival Corp for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.777+0.528 * 0.9371+0.404 * 1.0216+0.892 * 1.0291+0.115 * 0.9865
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.096+4.679 * -0.048-0.327 * 0.9268
=-2.90

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Aug14) TTM:Last Year (Aug13) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $355 Mil.
Revenue was 4947 + 3633 + 3585 + 3658 = $15,823 Mil.
Gross Profit was 2193 + 1068 + 997 + 1037 = $5,295 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,602 Mil.
Total Assets was $39,997 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $33,073 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $1,629 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $2,038 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $7,056 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $6,967 Mil.
Net Income was 1247 + 106 + -15 + 66 = $1,404 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 16 + 22 + -16 + 32 = $54 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 1120 + 1196 + 477 + 475 = $3,268 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $444 Mil.
Revenue was 4726 + 3479 + 3593 + 3578 = $15,376 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1809 + 992 + 994 + 1027 = $4,822 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $2,634 Mil.
Total Assets was $40,393 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $32,498 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $1,578 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,807 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $7,488 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $7,792 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(355 / 15823) / (444 / 15376)
=0.02243569 / 0.02887617
=0.777

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1068 / 15376) / (2193 / 15823)
=0.31360562 / 0.33463945
=0.9371

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1602 + 33073) / 39997) / (1 - (2634 + 32498) / 40393)
=0.13305998 / 0.13024534
=1.0216

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=15823 / 15376
=1.0291

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(1578 / (1578 + 32498)) / (1629 / (1629 + 33073))
=0.04630825 / 0.04694254
=0.9865

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(2038 / 15823) / (1807 / 15376)
=0.12879985 / 0.11752081
=1.096

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((6967 + 7056) / 39997) / ((7792 + 7488) / 40393)
=0.3506013 / 0.37828337
=0.9268

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(1404 - 54 - 3268) / 39997
=-0.048

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Carnival Corp has a M-score of -2.90 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Carnival Corp Annual Data

Nov04Nov05Nov06Nov07Nov08Nov09Nov10Nov11Nov12Nov13
DSRI 0.70090.87520.64271.41450.85310.94230.63730.97161.0542.8972
GMI 0.98340.99941.03021.02811.08331.01981.01021.06831.05711.0526
AQI 0.93160.93760.96740.97570.97320.93310.95220.96880.97390.9876
SGI 1.44791.13981.06781.10091.12380.9191.0751.09150.9741.0048
DEPI 0.86080.92431.00471.01830.88041.07380.96010.96460.99930.9853
SGAI 0.95220.90741.01960.99130.9181.06210.94430.97461.02851.0872
LVGI 0.98080.93721.00311.03081.01910.94350.96170.99791.0110.9969
TATA -0.0491-0.0403-0.0441-0.0486-0.0326-0.0426-0.049-0.0483-0.0431-0.0445
M-score -2.62-2.66-2.96-2.24-2.63-2.80-2.97-2.63-2.64-0.93

Carnival Corp Quarterly Data

May12Aug12Nov12Feb13May13Aug13Nov13Feb14May14Aug14
DSRI 0.75380.87211.05411.44981.47691.46282.89720.64270.69380.777
GMI 1.07021.06051.05721.00031.00761.06211.05261.07271.05660.9371
AQI 0.95540.98290.97390.97750.98970.98480.98760.99021.02691.0216
SGI 1.05390.9940.97390.96470.96590.99191.00481.00361.01751.0291
DEPI 0.94430.95370.99931.0020.9930.980.98530.99910.98970.9865
SGAI 0.9670.99431.0281.0621.07711.07411.08781.09951.10391.096
LVGI 1.03780.99821.0111.00021.00281.03930.99690.98770.94790.9268
TATA -0.0471-0.0457-0.0431-0.0397-0.0413-0.0437-0.0445-0.0482-0.0483-0.048
M-score -2.87-2.80-2.64-2.30-2.28-2.27-0.93-3.01-2.93-2.90
Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)
Free 7-day Trial
FEEDBACK