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Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL)
Beneish M-Score
-2.55 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Carnival Corp has a M-score of -2.55 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

CCL' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.24   Max: 10.13
Current: -2.55

-3.24
10.13

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Carnival Corp was 10.13. The lowest was -3.24. And the median was -2.49.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Carnival Corp for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.2853+0.528 * 0.8745+0.404 * 0.9898+0.892 * 1.0003+0.115 * 0.9733
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0133+4.679 * -0.0539-0.327 * 1.0279
=-2.55

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Feb16) TTM:Last Year (Feb15) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $423 Mil.
Revenue was 3651 + 3711 + 4883 + 3590 = $15,835 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1408 + 1493 + 2393 + 1186 = $6,480 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,860 Mil.
Total Assets was $38,446 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $31,677 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $1,648 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $2,089 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $6,664 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $7,990 Mil.
Net Income was 142 + 270 + 1216 + 222 = $1,850 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -241 + -191 + -209 + -8 = $-649 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 798 + 978 + 1281 + 1515 = $4,572 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $329 Mil.
Revenue was 3531 + 3719 + 4947 + 3633 = $15,830 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1196 + 1221 + 2187 + 1061 = $5,665 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,426 Mil.
Total Assets was $38,714 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $32,294 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $1,633 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $2,061 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $7,412 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $6,944 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(423 / 15835) / (329 / 15830)
=0.02671298 / 0.02078332
=1.2853

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1493 / 15830) / (1408 / 15835)
=0.35786481 / 0.40922008
=0.8745

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1860 + 31677) / 38446) / (1 - (1426 + 32294) / 38714)
=0.12768558 / 0.12899726
=0.9898

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=15835 / 15830
=1.0003

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(1633 / (1633 + 32294)) / (1648 / (1648 + 31677))
=0.04813276 / 0.04945236
=0.9733

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(2089 / 15835) / (2061 / 15830)
=0.13192296 / 0.13019583
=1.0133

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((7990 + 6664) / 38446) / ((6944 + 7412) / 38714)
=0.38115799 / 0.37082192
=1.0279

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(1850 - -649 - 4572) / 38446
=-0.0539

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Carnival Corp has a M-score of -2.55 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Carnival Corp Annual Data

Nov06Nov07Nov08Nov09Nov10Nov11Nov12Nov13Nov14Nov15
DSRI 0.60981.41450.85310.9640.6231.08242.5581.07160.60170.8569
GMI 1.03021.02811.08330.99681.03351.06831.05711.05260.9060.8652
AQI 0.96240.97570.97320.93310.95220.96880.97390.98760.99330.9579
SGI 1.06781.10091.12380.89831.09971.09150.9741.00481.02770.9893
DEPI 1.00471.01830.88041.07380.96010.96460.99930.98530.97020.9781
SGAI 1.01960.99130.9181.08650.9230.97461.02851.08721.06371.0172
LVGI 1.00091.03081.01910.94350.96170.99791.0110.99690.98041.0114
TATA -0.0441-0.0486-0.0326-0.0426-0.049-0.0483-0.0431-0.0445-0.0488-0.0566
M-score -2.99-2.24-2.63-2.82-2.95-2.52-1.26-2.61-3.11-2.98

Carnival Corp Quarterly Data

Nov13Feb14May14Aug14Nov14Feb15May15Aug15Nov15Feb16
DSRI 1.07160.64270.69381.04620.60171.24441.3040.95160.85691.2853
GMI 1.05721.07831.06360.94390.90520.87010.85270.87120.86210.8745
AQI 0.98760.99021.02691.02160.99330.9770.96520.95850.95790.9898
SGI 1.00481.00361.01751.02911.02771.02471.01190.99370.98941.0003
DEPI 0.98410.99730.9880.98420.97020.96440.95970.98670.97920.9733
SGAI 1.08781.09951.10391.0961.06261.03621.0141.01281.01761.0133
LVGI 0.99690.98770.94790.92680.98041.0080.98430.98171.01141.0279
TATA -0.0451-0.0489-0.0492-0.049-0.0494-0.0524-0.0568-0.0555-0.0566-0.0539
M-score -2.61-3.01-2.93-2.66-3.11-2.57-2.55-2.87-2.98-2.55
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