Switch to:
Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL)
Beneish M-Score
-2.94 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Carnival Corp has a M-score of -2.94 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

CCL' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.24   Max: 10.13
Current: -2.94

-3.24
10.13

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Carnival Corp was 10.13. The lowest was -3.24. And the median was -2.51.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Carnival Corp for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9103+0.528 * 0.8957+0.404 * 0.9796+0.892 * 1.028+0.115 * 0.9572
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0315+4.679 * -0.06-0.327 * 1.1391
=-2.94

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

This Year (Aug16) TTM:Last Year (Aug15) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $423 Mil.
Revenue was 5097 + 3705 + 3651 + 3711 = $16,164 Mil.
Gross Profit was 2534 + 1447 + 1408 + 1493 = $6,882 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,554 Mil.
Total Assets was $39,332 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $32,864 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $1,723 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $2,175 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $7,100 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $8,320 Mil.
Net Income was 1424 + 605 + 142 + 270 = $2,441 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -38 + 184 + -241 + -191 = $-286 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 1429 + 1883 + 798 + 978 = $5,088 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $452 Mil.
Revenue was 4883 + 3590 + 3531 + 3719 = $15,723 Mil.
Gross Profit was 2393 + 1186 + 1196 + 1221 = $5,996 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,617 Mil.
Total Assets was $38,797 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $32,232 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $1,614 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $2,051 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $6,749 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $6,604 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(423 / 16164) / (452 / 15723)
=0.02616927 / 0.02874769
=0.9103

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(5996 / 15723) / (6882 / 16164)
=0.38135216 / 0.42576095
=0.8957

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1554 + 32864) / 39332) / (1 - (1617 + 32232) / 38797)
=0.12493644 / 0.12753563
=0.9796

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=16164 / 15723
=1.028

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(1614 / (1614 + 32232)) / (1723 / (1723 + 32864))
=0.04768658 / 0.04981641
=0.9572

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(2175 / 16164) / (2051 / 15723)
=0.13455828 / 0.13044584
=1.0315

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((8320 + 7100) / 39332) / ((6604 + 6749) / 38797)
=0.39204719 / 0.3441761
=1.1391

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(2441 - -286 - 5088) / 39332
=-0.06

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Carnival Corp has a M-score of -2.94 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Carnival Corp Annual Data

Nov06Nov07Nov08Nov09Nov10Nov11Nov12Nov13Nov14Nov15
DSRI 0.61021.41450.85310.94230.63731.08242.5581.07160.60170.8569
GMI 1.03081.02811.08331.01981.01021.06831.05711.05720.9050.8624
AQI 0.96240.97570.97320.93310.95220.96880.97390.98760.99330.9715
SGI 1.06721.10091.12380.9191.0751.09150.9741.00481.02770.9893
DEPI 1.00471.01830.88041.07380.96010.96460.99930.98410.97020.9772
SGAI 1.01570.99130.9181.06210.94430.97461.02851.08721.06371.0172
LVGI 1.00091.03081.01910.94350.96170.99791.0110.99690.98041.0114
TATA -0.0441-0.0486-0.0326-0.0426-0.049-0.0483-0.0431-0.0451-0.0494-0.0566
M-score -2.99-2.24-2.63-2.80-2.97-2.52-1.26-2.61-3.11-2.98

Carnival Corp Quarterly Data

May14Aug14Nov14Feb15May15Aug15Nov15Feb16May16Aug16
DSRI 0.69381.04620.60171.24441.3040.95160.85691.28531.15130.9103
GMI 1.06360.94390.90520.87010.85270.87120.86210.87450.86780.8957
AQI 1.02691.02160.99330.9770.96520.95850.97150.98980.97940.9796
SGI 1.01751.02911.02771.02471.01190.99370.98941.00031.01031.028
DEPI 0.9880.98420.97020.96440.95970.98670.97720.97331.00170.9572
SGAI 1.10391.0961.06261.03621.0141.01281.01761.01331.02941.0315
LVGI 0.94790.92680.98041.0080.98430.98171.01141.02791.08331.1391
TATA -0.0492-0.049-0.0494-0.0524-0.0568-0.0555-0.0566-0.0539-0.0565-0.06
M-score -2.93-2.66-3.11-2.57-2.55-2.87-2.98-2.55-2.71-2.94
Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)
FEEDBACK