Switch to:
Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL)
Beneish M-Score
-3.06 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Carnival Corp has a M-score of -3.06 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

CCL' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -3.24   Max: 10.14
Current: -3.06

-3.24
10.14

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Carnival Corp was 10.14. The lowest was -3.24. And the median was -2.42.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Carnival Corp for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.5521+0.528 * 1.0566+0.404 * 1.0269+0.892 * 1.0175+0.115 * 0.9897
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.1039+4.679 * -0.0483-0.327 * 0.9479
=-3.06

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (May14) TTM:Last Year (May13) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $587 Mil.
Revenue was 3633 + 3585 + 3658 + 4726 = $15,602 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1068 + 997 + 1037 + 1809 = $4,911 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,625 Mil.
Total Assets was $40,526 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $33,515 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $1,622 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,996 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $7,401 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $7,880 Mil.
Net Income was 106 + -15 + 66 + 934 = $1,091 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 22 + -16 + 32 + 58 = $96 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 1196 + 477 + 475 + 803 = $2,951 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $1,045 Mil.
Revenue was 3479 + 3593 + 3578 + 4684 = $15,334 Mil.
Gross Profit was 992 + 994 + 1027 + 2087 = $5,100 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $2,324 Mil.
Total Assets was $39,979 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $32,481 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $1,555 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,777 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $8,055 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $7,848 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(587 / 15602) / (1045 / 15334)
=0.03762338 / 0.06814921
=0.5521

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(997 / 15334) / (1068 / 15602)
=0.33259424 / 0.31476734
=1.0566

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1625 + 33515) / 40526) / (1 - (2324 + 32481) / 39979)
=0.13290233 / 0.12941794
=1.0269

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=15602 / 15334
=1.0175

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(1555 / (1555 + 32481)) / (1622 / (1622 + 33515))
=0.04568692 / 0.04616217
=0.9897

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(1996 / 15602) / (1777 / 15334)
=0.12793232 / 0.11588627
=1.1039

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((7880 + 7401) / 40526) / ((7848 + 8055) / 39979)
=0.37706657 / 0.39778384
=0.9479

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(1091 - 96 - 2951) / 40526
=-0.0483

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Carnival Corp has a M-score of -3.06 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Carnival Corp Annual Data

Nov04Nov05Nov06Nov07Nov08Nov09Nov10Nov11Nov12Nov13
DSRI 1.70640.92180.61021.41450.85310.94230.63731.08242.5581.0716
GMI 1.0670.99881.03081.02811.08331.01981.01021.06831.05711.0526
AQI 2.08610.94250.96240.97570.97320.93310.95220.96880.97390.9876
SGI 2.21931.14051.06721.10091.12380.9191.0751.09150.9741.0048
DEPI 0.96960.92431.00471.01830.88041.07380.96010.96460.99930.9853
SGAI 0.95080.91091.01570.99130.9181.06210.94430.97461.02851.0872
LVGI 1.09080.93931.00091.03081.01910.94350.96170.99791.0110.9969
TATA -0.0491-0.0404-0.0441-0.0486-0.0326-0.0426-0.049-0.0483-0.0431-0.0445
M-score -0.52-2.61-2.99-2.24-2.63-2.80-2.97-2.52-1.26-2.61

Carnival Corp Quarterly Data

Feb12May12Aug12Nov12Feb13May13Aug13Nov13Feb14May14
DSRI 3.40311.8162.24572.55820.67191.57021.14371.07160.71250.5521
GMI 1.09411.07021.06051.05721.00031.00761.06211.05261.07271.0566
AQI 0.96350.95540.98290.97390.97750.98970.98480.98760.99021.0269
SGI 1.08481.05390.9940.97390.96470.96590.99191.00481.00361.0175
DEPI 0.94910.94430.95370.99931.0020.9930.980.98530.99910.9897
SGAI 0.96510.9670.99431.0281.0621.07711.07411.08781.09951.1039
LVGI 1.02261.03780.99821.0111.00021.00281.03930.99690.98770.9479
TATA -0.0535-0.0471-0.0457-0.0431-0.0397-0.0413-0.0437-0.0445-0.0482-0.0483
M-score -0.42-1.90-1.53-1.26-3.02-2.19-2.56-2.61-2.95-3.06
Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)
Free 7-day Trial
FEEDBACK
Email Hide