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Forward Air Corp (NAS:FWRD)
Beneish M-Score
-3.04 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Forward Air Corp has a M-score of -3.04 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

FWRD' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.72   Max: 47.03
Current: -3.04

-3.72
47.03

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Forward Air Corp was 47.03. The lowest was -3.72. And the median was -2.51.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Forward Air Corp for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9355+0.528 * 0.9856+0.404 * 1.2023+0.892 * 1.2257+0.115 * 0.822
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.1315+4.679 * -0.0494-0.327 * 2.549
=-3.04

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Sep15) TTM:Last Year (Sep14) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $114.7 Mil.
Revenue was 247.093 + 249.694 + 205.918 + 214.062 = $916.8 Mil.
Gross Profit was 138.833 + 138.024 + 112.561 + 116.587 = $506.0 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $185.7 Mil.
Total Assets was $698.7 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $172.5 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $35.9 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $306.8 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $113.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $42.8 Mil.
Net Income was 15.687 + 11.824 + 4.837 + 17.046 = $49.4 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0.01 + -0.089 + -0.048 + 0.145 = $0.0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 38.753 + 11.103 + 7.459 + 26.567 = $83.9 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $100.0 Mil.
Revenue was 201.477 + 193.852 + 171.569 + 181.085 = $748.0 Mil.
Gross Profit was 110.591 + 105.846 + 93.212 + 97.247 = $406.9 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $138.6 Mil.
Total Assets was $529.9 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $176.5 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $29.1 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $221.3 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $45.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $1.3 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(114.674 / 916.767) / (100.016 / 747.983)
=0.12508522 / 0.13371427
=0.9355

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(138.024 / 747.983) / (138.833 / 916.767)
=0.54399097 / 0.55194504
=0.9856

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (185.697 + 172.501) / 698.665) / (1 - (138.646 + 176.496) / 529.945)
=0.4873108 / 0.40533074
=1.2023

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=916.767 / 747.983
=1.2257

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(29.081 / (29.081 + 176.496)) / (35.855 / (35.855 + 172.501))
=0.14146038 / 0.17208528
=0.822

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(306.824 / 916.767) / (221.251 / 747.983)
=0.33468046 / 0.29579683
=1.1315

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((42.83 + 113.024) / 698.665) / ((1.346 + 45.031) / 529.945)
=0.22307401 / 0.08751286
=2.549

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(49.394 - 0.018 - 83.882) / 698.665
=-0.0494

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Forward Air Corp has a M-score of -3.04 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Forward Air Corp Annual Data

Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14
DSRI 1.04970.96391.10660.79281.10710.97151.01950.9740.91051.0411
GMI 1.01181.00010.70620.9871.35690.84031.00151.02751.02130.9875
AQI 1.61991.11971.84711.08480.84370.85890.95770.80291.5381.5629
SGI 1.13731.09921.11331.2080.87981.15941.10841.08961.11641.1969
DEPI 0.97041.10991.50970.79870.89590.95421.00051.02331.02860.8647
SGAI 1.01330.86291.07141.0861.15911.18910.91750.96040.99191.0035
LVGI 1.01970.74212.57641.06841.00470.86970.44630.69780.97551.2068
TATA -0.0481-0.0318-0.0795-0.055-0.1277-0.0632-0.0875-0.0399-0.072-0.0568
M-score -2.29-2.40-2.93-2.78-3.00-2.80-2.60-2.57-2.55-2.40

Forward Air Corp Quarterly Data

Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15
DSRI 0.93281.02330.91051.03481.07171.00731.04111.07681.03160.9355
GMI 1.06971.09111.02131.02191.01431.00280.98750.98470.98550.9856
AQI 1.51851.52721.5381.34861.42291.50051.56291.18531.19171.2023
SGI 1.05441.08621.11641.15891.19341.19311.19691.19461.21581.2257
DEPI 1.09391.0761.02860.97310.91890.88170.86470.80870.7910.822
SGAI 0.89880.87210.99191.0030.99380.99071.00351.04081.09571.1315
LVGI 0.71750.96740.97551.16341.34141.17181.20683.03762.8912.549
TATA -0.062-0.0584-0.072-0.0685-0.0674-0.0678-0.0568-0.0328-0.0289-0.0494
M-score -2.42-2.35-2.55-2.53-2.50-2.48-2.40-3.02-2.98-3.04
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