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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:
An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.
During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Forward Air Corp was 47.03. The lowest was -3.72. And the median was -2.51.
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Forward Air Corp for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
|M||=||-4.84||+||0.92 * DSRI||+||0.528 * GMI||+||0.404 * AQI||+||0.892 * SGI||+||0.115 * DEPI|
|=||-4.84||+||0.92 * 0.9355||+||0.528 * 0.9856||+||0.404 * 1.2023||+||0.892 * 1.2257||+||0.115 * 0.822|
|-||0.172 * SGAI||+||4.679 * TATA||-||0.327 * LVGI|
|-||0.172 * 1.1315||+||4.679 * -0.0494||-||0.327 * 2.549|
* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.
|This Year (Sep15) TTM:||Last Year (Sep14) TTM:|
|Accounts Receivable was $114.7 Mil.|
Revenue was 247.093 + 249.694 + 205.918 + 214.062 = $916.8 Mil.
Gross Profit was 138.833 + 138.024 + 112.561 + 116.587 = $506.0 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $185.7 Mil.
Total Assets was $698.7 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $172.5 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $35.9 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $306.8 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $113.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $42.8 Mil.
Net Income was 15.687 + 11.824 + 4.837 + 17.046 = $49.4 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0.01 + -0.089 + -0.048 + 0.145 = $0.0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 38.753 + 11.103 + 7.459 + 26.567 = $83.9 Mil.
|Accounts Receivable was $100.0 Mil.
Revenue was 201.477 + 193.852 + 171.569 + 181.085 = $748.0 Mil.
Gross Profit was 110.591 + 105.846 + 93.212 + 97.247 = $406.9 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $138.6 Mil.
Total Assets was $529.9 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $176.5 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $29.1 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $221.3 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $45.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $1.3 Mil.
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
|DSRI||=||(Receivables_t / Revenue_t)||/||(Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)|
|=||(114.674 / 916.767)||/||(100.016 / 747.983)|
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
|=||(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)||/||(GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)|
|=||(138.024 / 747.983)||/||(138.833 / 916.767)|
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
|AQI||=||(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t)||/||(1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)|
|=||(1 - (185.697 + 172.501) / 698.665)||/||(1 - (138.646 + 176.496) / 529.945)|
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
|DEPI||=||(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1))||/||(Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))|
|=||(29.081 / (29.081 + 176.496))||/||(35.855 / (35.855 + 172.501))|
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
|SGAI||=||(SGA_t / Sales_t)||/||(SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)|
|=||(306.824 / 916.767)||/||(221.251 / 747.983)|
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage
|LVGI||=||((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t)||/||((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)|
|=||((42.83 + 113.024) / 698.665)||/||((1.346 + 45.031) / 529.945)|
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
|=||(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t||-||CashFlowsfromOperations_t)||/||TotalAssets_t|
|=||(49.394 - 0.018||-||83.882)||/||698.665|
An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Forward Air Corp has a M-score of -3.04 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.
Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations
Forward Air Corp Annual Data
Forward Air Corp Quarterly Data