Amkor Technology (Amkor Technology) Predictability Rank

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What is Amkor Technology Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Amkor Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Amkor Technology (Amkor Technology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Amkor Technology Inc (NAS:AMKR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AMK:Germany

Address

2045 East Innovation Circle, Tempe, AZ, USA, 85284

Website

https://www.amkor.com

Amkor Technology Inc is a provider of outsourced semiconductor packaging and test services to integrated device manufacturers, fabless semiconductor companies, and contract foundries. The firm's products are organized into two streams: advanced products, including flip chip, wafer-level processing and testing services; and mainstream products, including wirebond packaging and testing. Roughly a third of the firm's revenue is generated in the United States, with the rest coming from China, Ireland, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan, Singapore, and countries across the world.

Executives

Megan Faust	officer: See Remarks	2045 E INNOVATION CIRCLE, TEMPE AZ 85284
Tily Gil Coleman	officer: Corp VP & General Counsel	1900 S. PRICE ROAD, CHANDLER AZ 85248
Roger Anthony Carolin	director	1200 LIBERTY RIDGE DRIVE, WAYNE PA 19087
Mark N Rogers	officer: EVP & General Counsel	2045 EAST INNOVATION CIRCLE, TEMPE AZ 85284
Family Trust Under The Susan Y. Kim 2018-1 Irrevocable Trust Agreement Dtd. 8/29/18	other: Member of 10% owner group (2)	C/O SIANA CARR O'CONNOR & LYNAM, 1500 EAST LANCASTER AVENUE, PAOLI PA 19301-9713
2023 Grantor Retained Annuity Trust Of Susan Y. Kim Dated 9/15/2023	other: Member of 10% owner group (2)	C/O SIANA CARR O'CONNOR & LYNAM, 1500 EAST LANCASTER AVENUE, PAOLI PA 19301-9713
Family Trust Under The Susan Y. Kim 2020-1 Irrevocable Trust Agreement Dated 04/01/2020	other: Member of 10% owner group (2)	C/O SIANA CARR O'CONNOR & LYNAM, 1500 EAST LANCASTER AVENUE, PAOLI PA 19301-9713
James J Kim	director, 10 percent owner, other: Exhibit 99.1	C/O SIANA CARR O'CONNOR & LYNAM, LLP, 1500 EAST LANCASTER AVENUE, PAOLI PA 19301-9713
Agnes C Kim	other: Exhibit 99.1	C/O SIANA CARR O'CONNOR & LYNAM, LLP, 1500 EAST LANCASTER AVENUE, PAOLI PA 19301-9713
915 Investments, Lp	10 percent owner, other: See Exhibit 99.1	915 MT. PLEASANT ROAD, BRYN MAWR PA 19010
Family Trust Under The John T. Kim 2018 Irrevocable Trust Agreement Dated 2/6/18	other: Member of 10% owner group (2)	C/O SIANA CARR O'CONNOR & LYNAM, 1500 EAST LANCASTER AVENUE, PAOLI PA 19301-9713
Kevin Engel	officer: Executive Vice President	2045 EAST INNOVATION CIRCLE, TEMPE AZ 85284
Sung Shin	officer: Executive Vice President	2045 EAST INNOVATION CIRCLE, TEMPE AZ 85284
2023 Grantor Retained Annuity Trust Of Agnes C. Kim Dated 4/26/2023	other: Member of 10% owner group (2)	C/O SIANA CARR O'CONNOR & LYNAM, 1500 EAST LANCASTER AVENUE, PAOLI PA 19301-9713
2023 Grantor Retained Annuity Trust Of James J. Kim Dated 4/26/2023	other: Member of 10% owner group (2)	C/O SIANA CARR O'CONNOR & LYNAM, 1500 EAST LANCASTER AVENUE, PAOLI PA 19301-9713