American Capital (American Capital) Predictability Rank

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What is American Capital Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

American Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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American Capital (American Capital) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » American Capital Ltd (NAS:ACAS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.american-capital.com

American Capital Ltd was founded in 1986 and incorporated in Delaware. On August 29, 1997, it completed an initial public offering and became a non-diversified closed end investment company that has elected to be regulated as a business development company under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended. It is an asset management and private equity firm. The Company originates, underwrites and manages investments in middle market private equity, leveraged finance, real estate, energy and structured products. It invests in senior and mezzanine debt and equity in buyouts of private companies sponsored by it or sponsored by other private equity funds and provide capital directly to early stage and mature private and small public companies. Its business objectives are to increase its net earnings and net asset value by making investments with attractive current yields and/or potential for equity appreciation and realized gains. Its investments can be divided into the following six business lines: American Capital One Stop Buyouts, Sponsor Finance Investments, Direct and Other Investments, European Capital, Asset Management and Structured Products. The Company competes with strategic buyers, private equity funds, mezzanine debt funds and other buyers and financing sources, including traditional financial services companies such as finance companies, commercial banks, investment banks and other equity and non-equity based investment funds. The Company and its portfolio companies are subject to regulation by laws at the local, state, federal and foreign level, including with respect to securities laws, tax and accounting standards.

Executives

Susan K Nestegard	director	AMERICAN CAPITAL, LTD., 2 BETHESDA METRO, 14TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Gordon Obrien	officer: See Remarks	1400 TOASTMASTER DRIVE, ELGIN IL 60120
Peterson Kenneth D Jr	director	2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, 14TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Samuel Allan Flax	officer: EVP, GC and Secretary	2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, 14TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Alvin N Puryear	director	2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, 14TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Malon Wilkus	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, 14TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
John R Erickson	officer: See Remarks	2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, 14TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Kristen L Manos	director	855 EAST MAIN AVENUE, ZEELAND MI 49454-0302
Ira Wagner	officer: Pres., European Priv Fin	2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, 14TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Paulson Advantage Plus Master Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, P.O. BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, S. CHURCH ST, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Paulson Advantage Master Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, P.O. BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, S. CHURCH ST, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Paulson International Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, P.O. BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, S. CHURCH ST, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Paulson Partners Enhanced L.p.	10 percent owner	1133 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Paulson Enhanced Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, P.O. BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, S. CHURCH ST, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Paulson & Co. Inc.	10 percent owner	1133 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036