Accenture (Accenture) Predictability Rank

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What is Accenture Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Accenture Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Accenture (Accenture) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Accenture PLC (NYSE:ACN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ACN:Mexico CSA:Germany CSA:Germany CSA:Germany ACNB34:Brazil

Address

1 Grand Canal Square, Grand Canal Harbour, Dublin, IRL, 2

Website

https://www.accenture.com

Accenture is a leading global IT-services firm that provides consulting, strategy, and technology and operational services. These services run the gamut from aiding enterprises with digital transformation to procurement services to software system integration. The company provides its IT offerings to a variety of sectors, including communications, media and technology, financial services, health and public services, consumer products, and resources. Accenture employs just under 500,000 people throughout 200 cities in 51 countries.

Executives

Julie Spellman Sweet	officer: General Counsel, Sec & CCO	C/O ACCENTURE, 161 N. CLARK STREET, CHICAGO IL 60601
Manish Sharma	officer: Chief Operating Officer	161 NORTH CLARK, CHICAGO IL 60601
Jean-marc Ollagnier	officer: Group Chief Exec-Resources	C/O ACCENTURE, 161 N. CLARK STREET, CHICAGO IL 60601
Jaime Ardila	director	300 RENAISSANCE CENTER, M/C: 482-C25-A36, DETROIT MI 48265-3000
Paula A Price	director	ONE CVS DRIVE, WOONSOCKET RI 02895
Joel Unruch	officer: General Counsel, Sec & CCO	C/O ACCENTURE, 161 N. CLARK STREET, CHICAGO IL 60601
John F Walsh	officer: Grp Chief Exec-Com, Med & Tech	C/O ACCENTURE, 161 N. CLARK STREET, CHICAGO IL 60601
Ellyn Shook	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O ACCENTURE, 161 N. CLARK STREET, CHICAGO IL 60601
Leonardo Framil	officer: CEO-Growth Markets	500 W. MADISON STREET, CHICAGO IL 60661
Melissa A Burgum	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O SRA INTERNATIONAL, INC., 4300 FAIR LAKES COURT, FAIRFAX VA 22033
Alan C. Jope	director	500 W. MADISON STREET, CHICAGO IL 60661
James O Etheredge	officer: Group Chief Exec-North America	C/O ACCENTURE, 161 N. CLARK STREET, CHICAGO IL 60601
Gianfranco Casati	officer: Group Chief Executive?Products	C/O ACCENTURE, 161 N. CLARK STREET, CHCIAGO IL 60601
Kathleen R Mcclure	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ACCENTURE, 161 N. CLARK STREET, CHICAGO IL 60601
Richard P Clark	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O ACCENTURE, 161 N. CLARK STREET, CHICAGO IL 60601